By John Lovell
Lobbyist
It’s official: the June ballot measure to enact a non-partisan primary in California is Proposition 14.
Under Proposition 14, all primary elections (except for Presidential primary contests) will be open to all voters, regardless of party. The top two candidates in the primary will face off against each other in the general election.
This is an extremely important reform – strongly supported by CAHU – because it will bring the Legislature more toward the center. Here’s why: Right now, all of the primaries are closed primaries and virtually all districts are safe. What this means is that the only elections that matter is the primary election in the majority party (for that district) once the incumbent has termed out. In closed primaries, the people who vote are the activists – the true believers. This means that a Democratic primary is dominated by voters who are considerably to the left of most ordinary people who call themselves Democrats. Republican primaries are dominated by voters who are to the ideological right of ordinary Republicans. Therefore, the way a candidate wins in a closed primary is to run to the extremes in their respective party.
These are the only elections in America where a candidate wins by running to the extremes.
With an open primary, party won’t matter. Everyone gets to vote and the top two candidates face off against each other in the Fall. That means that in a safe Democratic district, Republican voters will be the decisive factor in determining what type of Democrat goes to Sacramento. In a safe Republican district, Democratic voters will have a similar influence.
And what this means is that the entire Legislature will move to the center. CAHU does very well when we can speak with centrist Legislators – be they Democrat or Republican.
As to be expected, both political parties hate Proposition 14. Initially, they pledged to spend upwards of $ 20 million to defeat Proposition 14. That may be changing: Both parties will have to be spending considerable funds in either electing or protecting their respective candidates. In other words, the good guys have a chance to win one!
CAHU-PAC gave $ 100,000 to help pass Proposition 14: We have made our voices heard and we are on the verge of dramatically changing California.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010
Week of 1-25-10
By John Lovell
CAHU Lobbyist
Political events of seismic proportions have occurred in the last ten days. First, there was the move of Tom Campbell from the Governor’s race over to the race for the GOP nomination for the right to challenge Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer for her US Senate Seat. Then the Massachusetts Earthquake hit where the bluest of blue states elected a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat.
The events – although not planned – are linked. Tom Campbell is a much better candidate for US Senate than he was for Governor. In fact, the first polls taken after his switch show him leading fellow Republicans Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore for his party’s nod. In fact, his candidacy raises the possibility that Senator Boxer could be defeated come November. No political observer with whom CR has spoken thinks that either Fiorina or DeVore had much of a chance of upending Boxer – but Campbell is different: the press likes him and he brings neither corporate baggage (Fiorina led HP at a time when they were allegedly evading laws against trade with Iran), nor is he considered too extreme (DeVore is known as one of the most conservative members of the Assembly). Ironically, Campbell is actually to the left of Boxer on some public safety issues – but it remains to be seen whether those issues will be part of a November Senate race.
On the gubernatorial side, Meg Whitman moves to a commanding lead over Insurance Commish Steve Poizner with Campbell out of the race. Further, either Whitman or Poizner runs within 10 points of likely Demo nod Jerry Brown. That number is significant since Jerry held a 20 point margin over both eMeg and Smokestack Steve in the last polling.
Massachusetts suggests that it is too early – way too early – for Boxer to sign another DC apartment lease or for Brown to start planning his cabinet.
CAHU Lobbyist
Political events of seismic proportions have occurred in the last ten days. First, there was the move of Tom Campbell from the Governor’s race over to the race for the GOP nomination for the right to challenge Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer for her US Senate Seat. Then the Massachusetts Earthquake hit where the bluest of blue states elected a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat.
The events – although not planned – are linked. Tom Campbell is a much better candidate for US Senate than he was for Governor. In fact, the first polls taken after his switch show him leading fellow Republicans Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore for his party’s nod. In fact, his candidacy raises the possibility that Senator Boxer could be defeated come November. No political observer with whom CR has spoken thinks that either Fiorina or DeVore had much of a chance of upending Boxer – but Campbell is different: the press likes him and he brings neither corporate baggage (Fiorina led HP at a time when they were allegedly evading laws against trade with Iran), nor is he considered too extreme (DeVore is known as one of the most conservative members of the Assembly). Ironically, Campbell is actually to the left of Boxer on some public safety issues – but it remains to be seen whether those issues will be part of a November Senate race.
On the gubernatorial side, Meg Whitman moves to a commanding lead over Insurance Commish Steve Poizner with Campbell out of the race. Further, either Whitman or Poizner runs within 10 points of likely Demo nod Jerry Brown. That number is significant since Jerry held a 20 point margin over both eMeg and Smokestack Steve in the last polling.
Massachusetts suggests that it is too early – way too early – for Boxer to sign another DC apartment lease or for Brown to start planning his cabinet.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
The Rap is Back
By John Lovell
CAHU Lobbyist
CR took the legislative recess time off, but is now back for the upcoming session – a session that promises to be leavened by a healthy dose of politics.
Look for discussions about the ins and outs of the open primary ballot measure – a critically important ballot measure: CAHU-PAC has made a $ 100,000 contribution towards its passage. And don’t forget, there’s a Governor’s race coming up this year. Right now, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman seems to have a comfortable lead in the race for the GOP nomination, but a highly respected Republican politico told CR last week that Insurance Commish Steve Poizner “would smoke eMeg once the campaign gets going.” We’ll reserve judgment on that one. The other statewide races are starting to take shape as new names come into the fray. The Attorney General race just got turned upside down with the news that respected LA District Attorney Steve Cooley will be entering the race for the GOP nomination. He’ll square off against State Senator Tom Harman. Harman’s not as well known as Cooley, but he does have the advantage of a head start and the counsel of Wayne Johnson, one of the best campaign consultants in California (CR believes he IS the best).
So, we’ll have a lot to talk about this year; for the latest in political news and gossip, keep it right here, at Capitol Rap.
CAHU Lobbyist
CR took the legislative recess time off, but is now back for the upcoming session – a session that promises to be leavened by a healthy dose of politics.
Look for discussions about the ins and outs of the open primary ballot measure – a critically important ballot measure: CAHU-PAC has made a $ 100,000 contribution towards its passage. And don’t forget, there’s a Governor’s race coming up this year. Right now, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman seems to have a comfortable lead in the race for the GOP nomination, but a highly respected Republican politico told CR last week that Insurance Commish Steve Poizner “would smoke eMeg once the campaign gets going.” We’ll reserve judgment on that one. The other statewide races are starting to take shape as new names come into the fray. The Attorney General race just got turned upside down with the news that respected LA District Attorney Steve Cooley will be entering the race for the GOP nomination. He’ll square off against State Senator Tom Harman. Harman’s not as well known as Cooley, but he does have the advantage of a head start and the counsel of Wayne Johnson, one of the best campaign consultants in California (CR believes he IS the best).
So, we’ll have a lot to talk about this year; for the latest in political news and gossip, keep it right here, at Capitol Rap.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Conflict over Maldonado Confirmation as Lt. Governor
By John Lovell
The words were barely out of the Governor’s mouth announcing his intent to appoint Senator Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor when Senate President Pro Tempore announced that he had “grave doubts” over confirming Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor.
Steinberg expressed a concern over the $ 2 million it would cost to have a special election to fill Senator Maldonado’s Senate seat.
Whatever the costs of a special election, the real agenda is political: In the wake of the political tsunami that hit Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia, Capitol Democrats fear that 2010 could also be a bad Democratic year in California – particularly in a low turn-out special election.
And Democrats are not alone. There are three State Senators – two Republican and one Democrat – who themselves would like to be Lieutenant Governor. None of them are interested in giving Senator Maldonado the leg-up of incumbency.
None of this means, however, that Maldonado will not be confirmed. If Maldonado is rejected by the Legislature, he will remain in the Senate, but will most assuredly be less likely to break ranks with his Republican colleagues (as he has in the past) to vote for a budget.
The State Constitution requires that Maldonado must be confirmed by both houses of the Legislature. But it also provides that if the Legislature takes no action within 90 days, then Senator Maldonado will be deemed confirmed.
CR will be watching the political tealeaves to give you a distant early warning as to how all of this plays out.
The words were barely out of the Governor’s mouth announcing his intent to appoint Senator Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor when Senate President Pro Tempore announced that he had “grave doubts” over confirming Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor.
Steinberg expressed a concern over the $ 2 million it would cost to have a special election to fill Senator Maldonado’s Senate seat.
Whatever the costs of a special election, the real agenda is political: In the wake of the political tsunami that hit Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia, Capitol Democrats fear that 2010 could also be a bad Democratic year in California – particularly in a low turn-out special election.
And Democrats are not alone. There are three State Senators – two Republican and one Democrat – who themselves would like to be Lieutenant Governor. None of them are interested in giving Senator Maldonado the leg-up of incumbency.
None of this means, however, that Maldonado will not be confirmed. If Maldonado is rejected by the Legislature, he will remain in the Senate, but will most assuredly be less likely to break ranks with his Republican colleagues (as he has in the past) to vote for a budget.
The State Constitution requires that Maldonado must be confirmed by both houses of the Legislature. But it also provides that if the Legislature takes no action within 90 days, then Senator Maldonado will be deemed confirmed.
CR will be watching the political tealeaves to give you a distant early warning as to how all of this plays out.
Monday, November 16, 2009
If you are not a member of CAHU-PAC, you need to join today. If everyone in CAHU sets aside $ 21.00 per month for CAHU-PAC, we will have the resources to make a major change in how business is done in Sacramento. $ 21.00 isn’t a lot of money – most of us dissipate that much in any given day without even noticing it. Frankly, if a CAHU member cannot afford to give CAHU-PAC $ 21.00 a month, they have probably chosen the wrong profession and need to go do something else.
It’s easy, just contact Patrice Loretta at CAHU’s office (800-322-5934) and tell her that you want $ 21.00 per month charged to your credit card – or, taken out of your checking account.
Here’s why it’s particularly important this year – the Legislature has placed a ballot measure on the June 2010 ballot that will change the law to provide that all primary elections for state legislative offices will be NON-PARTISAN. This change is terribly important to CAHU because it will result in the election of more moderate, anti-single payor Legislators. Currently, this measure runs well in the polls, but BOTH political parties will be spending mega-dollars in an effort to mislead the public and get them to reject this measure. For us to win, all reasonable groups – including CAHU – must mobilize resources to assure that the “yes” campaign is fully funded.
That’s where each of us come in. Call Patrice Loretta this week, tell her that you want to set aside $ 21.00 per month to help CAHU-PAC. Do it today, the business you save could be your own.
It’s easy, just contact Patrice Loretta at CAHU’s office (800-322-5934) and tell her that you want $ 21.00 per month charged to your credit card – or, taken out of your checking account.
Here’s why it’s particularly important this year – the Legislature has placed a ballot measure on the June 2010 ballot that will change the law to provide that all primary elections for state legislative offices will be NON-PARTISAN. This change is terribly important to CAHU because it will result in the election of more moderate, anti-single payor Legislators. Currently, this measure runs well in the polls, but BOTH political parties will be spending mega-dollars in an effort to mislead the public and get them to reject this measure. For us to win, all reasonable groups – including CAHU – must mobilize resources to assure that the “yes” campaign is fully funded.
That’s where each of us come in. Call Patrice Loretta this week, tell her that you want to set aside $ 21.00 per month to help CAHU-PAC. Do it today, the business you save could be your own.
Monday, October 12, 2009
If you have not yet made plans to attend the annual CAHU Sales Conference, do so today. The festivities will run October 21 and 22 at the Burbank Marriott Hotel (which, for those of you who don’t know, serves a great martini at their restaurant/bar). The CAHU Sales Conference is, in effect, our state convention, and the information gleaned there can be useful throughout the entire year.
The President’s reception this year promises to be particularly inspiring and will help get us mobilized for the challenges that we face in the near and distant future. A series of speakers will give CAHU members important tools that can be used to enhance their individual businesses as well as to hone the effectiveness of the CAHU message with opinion makers in either Sacramento, or Washington.
The CAHU Sales Conference – be there!
The President’s reception this year promises to be particularly inspiring and will help get us mobilized for the challenges that we face in the near and distant future. A series of speakers will give CAHU members important tools that can be used to enhance their individual businesses as well as to hone the effectiveness of the CAHU message with opinion makers in either Sacramento, or Washington.
The CAHU Sales Conference – be there!
Monday, October 5, 2009
The continued political nattering about GOP nomination hopeful Meg Whitman continues apace. The Whitman campaign not only has not developed an effective response to her admittedly spotty voting record, but now information has come out that eMeg made a political endorsement in the 2004 US Senate Race for . . . . drum roll please. . . . . . Barbara Boxer! For those who neglected to vote in that election, Boxer was the Democrat in that race. Convincing voters in a Republican gubernatorial primary that their standard bearer for the statehouse should be a candidate who endorsed Senator Boxer could prove to be daunting.
A major iceberg is looming in Democratic gubernatorial seas, however. Expatriate pedophile, sexual predator, movie producer Roman Polanski has been arrested in Switzerland. The expatriate pedophile, sexual predator, movie producer Polanski pleaded guilty in 1978 to unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor, and fled the country to avoid incarceration. Efforts to extradite the EP,SP, MP Polanski will most assuredly involve the Attorney General’s office. Ever out of touch Hollywood has come out foursquare behind the EP,SP,MP Polanski. The Hollywood folks are the big check writers for Democratic candidates in California statewide elections. CR wonders if there will be public statements from either of the Democratic candidates about the extradition efforts.
A major iceberg is looming in Democratic gubernatorial seas, however. Expatriate pedophile, sexual predator, movie producer Roman Polanski has been arrested in Switzerland. The expatriate pedophile, sexual predator, movie producer Polanski pleaded guilty in 1978 to unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor, and fled the country to avoid incarceration. Efforts to extradite the EP,SP, MP Polanski will most assuredly involve the Attorney General’s office. Ever out of touch Hollywood has come out foursquare behind the EP,SP,MP Polanski. The Hollywood folks are the big check writers for Democratic candidates in California statewide elections. CR wonders if there will be public statements from either of the Democratic candidates about the extradition efforts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
