Some bits and pieces . . . .
This past week saw budget discussions move forward in fits and starts. At the beginning of the week, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass absented herself from the budget negotiations as a way of expressing her displeasure over some of the direction the Governor was attempting to move things. She returned on Friday and from all accounts it appears that the parties are making progress in the budget discussions. Best guess is that there will be some type of budget sometime early in the week.
Former Assembly Speaker and San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown – one of the wiser political observers – thinks that the pundits have it all wrong about the Sarah Palin resignation. According to Brown, this now frees Ms. Palin up to aggressively campaign for Republicans around the nation for the next few years, build up chits among Republican satraps, and raise needed funds for a Presidential run. Brown pointed out that Alaska is a day and a half from the rest of the country and that she would risk being skewered as an absentee Governor should she try to take care of political business in the rest of the state.
Nevada Senator John Ensign’s political career continues to circle the drain. Latest word is that his PARENTS (!) paid $ 96,000 to his former mistress and her husband. Seems Ensign needs mommy and daddy to pay hush money.
Governor Mark Sanford has finally, mercifully, stopped speaking in public about Argentine soul mates; given this field, CR believes that former Speaker/Mayor Brown may have a point – Sarah Barracuda is looking awfully much like a front-runner for the GOP nod in 2012.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Monday, July 6, 2009
A Dedicated Voice Stilled
Capitol Rap joins with all CAHU members in mourning the loss of our beloved Lloyd Baum. Lloyd was the epitome of the CAHU Citizen Lobbyist. He gave tirelessly of himself with the CAHU Legislative Committee, worked hard to develop relationships at the capitol, and gave scholarships to other CAHU members so they could attend Day At The Capitol. Integrity, a work ethic that wouldn’t quit, dedication to CAHU and to the role of the agent. Lloyd Baum was truly special. He will be missed by all of us.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
The personal hijinks of politicians have become endemic in the last several months. LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa left his wife for LA TV Anchor # 1; Mayor Gavin Newsom admitted to sleeping with the wife of one of his staffers; John Edwards confirmed the truth of the National Enquirer stories about his meanderings; Governor Elliot Spitzer, although a lawyer, didn’t understand that there is no such thing as a hooker-politician privilege; Senator David Vitter proved that ignorance of the lack of a hooker-politician was bipartisan; Senator John Ensign is evidently an admirer of SF Mayor Newsom, because, he too, slept with the wife of one of his staffers – a fine example of bipartisanship; Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina is still trying to find the Appalachian Trail (he misses it by taking the Buenos Aires off ramp); and Antonio Villaraigosa has now taken up with LA TV Anchor # 2.
Would former Florida Congressman Mark Foley say that “all of these guys are on the same page.?”
It has been conventional wisdom of political pundits since Bill Clinton finished his Monica enhanced two terms with a 60% approval rate that the private foibles of politicians will not hurt them politically.
CR has spoken to a number of pollsters and campaign professionals who suggest that the conventional wisdom of the pundits is more conventional than wise. As one operative told CR, “Bill Clinton was the exception, it will never happen again, politicians will be held accountable for their personal conduct and personal character.”
An examination of what has happened to the politicians listed above suggests that the operatives, not the pundits, are correct.
Mayor Villaraigosa’s approval numbers plummeted after news of his leaving his wife became known – interestingly, his approval ratings among Hispanic women were dismal. John Edwards has disappeared from public life – the word is that his former campaign manager David Bonier refuses to even return his calls. Elliot Spitzer’s career is non-existent and “Diaper Dave” Vitter (a nickname that stems from some Vitter-hooker email correspondence) finds himself so vulnerable in the upcoming election that Republicans are thinking of running a primary candidate against him. The recent Ensign disclosures prompted the Newsom campaign to look at their collective shoes and say nothing, as his poll numbers lag behind Jerry Brown. And Governor Sanford has become a national laughingstock.
Contrary to post-Clinton pundits, it appears that personal conduct does count for something politically. This may be yet another example of voters having better instincts than the media elite. Ordinary voters get it; if a candidate cannot even keep his word to his spouse, does his word have any value at all?
Would former Florida Congressman Mark Foley say that “all of these guys are on the same page.?”
It has been conventional wisdom of political pundits since Bill Clinton finished his Monica enhanced two terms with a 60% approval rate that the private foibles of politicians will not hurt them politically.
CR has spoken to a number of pollsters and campaign professionals who suggest that the conventional wisdom of the pundits is more conventional than wise. As one operative told CR, “Bill Clinton was the exception, it will never happen again, politicians will be held accountable for their personal conduct and personal character.”
An examination of what has happened to the politicians listed above suggests that the operatives, not the pundits, are correct.
Mayor Villaraigosa’s approval numbers plummeted after news of his leaving his wife became known – interestingly, his approval ratings among Hispanic women were dismal. John Edwards has disappeared from public life – the word is that his former campaign manager David Bonier refuses to even return his calls. Elliot Spitzer’s career is non-existent and “Diaper Dave” Vitter (a nickname that stems from some Vitter-hooker email correspondence) finds himself so vulnerable in the upcoming election that Republicans are thinking of running a primary candidate against him. The recent Ensign disclosures prompted the Newsom campaign to look at their collective shoes and say nothing, as his poll numbers lag behind Jerry Brown. And Governor Sanford has become a national laughingstock.
Contrary to post-Clinton pundits, it appears that personal conduct does count for something politically. This may be yet another example of voters having better instincts than the media elite. Ordinary voters get it; if a candidate cannot even keep his word to his spouse, does his word have any value at all?
Monday, June 22, 2009
Parents of Sacramento-based female TV anchors breathed a collective sigh of relief today when LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa made it official – the skirt-chasing LA Mayor is not going to be running for Governor. The Mayor’s announcement made official what politicos around the state have been telling CR for the last three months, namely that the Mayor’s eroding popularity has made a gubernatorial candidacy unrealistic.
At this point, the Democratic race for Governor appears to be shaking out as a Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco; and Jerry Brown, the state’s Attorney General. With Villaraigosa out of the race, the current thinking is that Latino voters (who were 68% inclined to vote for the LA Mayor) will drift over to Jerry Brown. Politicos in the know have told CR that Brown has a long history with California’s Latino community and was one of the first politicians – back in the 1970’s – to recognize the political potential of that community.
So, short-term advantage to Brown (and an incalculable advantage to parents of Sacramento-based female TV anchors) if this race remains a two person race. The larger question is whether anyone else will get into the race. Again, people in the political know have been telling CR for the last month that there is manifestly room in the Democratic Primary for another candidate.
At this point, the Democratic race for Governor appears to be shaking out as a Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco; and Jerry Brown, the state’s Attorney General. With Villaraigosa out of the race, the current thinking is that Latino voters (who were 68% inclined to vote for the LA Mayor) will drift over to Jerry Brown. Politicos in the know have told CR that Brown has a long history with California’s Latino community and was one of the first politicians – back in the 1970’s – to recognize the political potential of that community.
So, short-term advantage to Brown (and an incalculable advantage to parents of Sacramento-based female TV anchors) if this race remains a two person race. The larger question is whether anyone else will get into the race. Again, people in the political know have been telling CR for the last month that there is manifestly room in the Democratic Primary for another candidate.
Monday, June 8, 2009
A lot of stuff happening on the political front this last week. First, LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has another new girlfriend, and like the last one, she’s also in TV news! Fathers of female Sacramento TV journalists better guard their daughters if Villaraigosa runs for Governor and succeeds! Seriously, while politicians are accorded a private life of sorts, many political operatives shared with CR that this latest disclosure will not help the Mayor. “It just reminds voters about his affair with the first TV news girlfriend,” said one political observer, “and that is a story Mayor Tony V. doesn’t want retold.” Increasingly, CR his hearing that LA’s beleaguered Mayor will not be running for Governor in this election cycle.
On the GOP side, a big polling surprise: Former Schwarzenegger Finance Director, former Congressman, former State Senator Tom Campbell has opened up a lead in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. A recent poll put Campbell at 17%, former eBay executive Meg Whitman at 10% and Insurance Commish Steve Poizner at 7%, with the rest undecided.
The Democrats currently give Attorney General (and former Governor, former State Demo Party Chair, former Mayor of Oakland) Jerry Brown 23.5%; San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom 17.5%; and LA Mayor (and companion of female TV journalists) Antonio Villaraigosa 15.1%.
Obviously, these are early numbers but they do invite some comment. First, Mr. Campbell’s opening up a lead on Ms. Whitman (known among political writers as eMeg) illustrates that his candidacy is to be taken seriously. He has opened this lead in the wake of an aggressive press blitz by Ms. Whitman. Poizner’s low numbers are a puzzle, since he has been extremely aggressive in going after Ms. Whitman. It may be that his attacks on Ms. Whitman blunted her benefits from her press blitz, but also depressed Mr. Poizner’s own upward mobility.
Among Democrats, the Attorney General’s lead in the polls is not impressive. Easily the most well-known candidate on the Demo side, a showing of less than 25% suggests that California Dems don’t feel the kind of connection that will glide him into the Governor’s Mansion (oh, wait, California does NOT have a Governor’s Mansion).
For the latest in political info, keep it right her, at Capitol Rap.
On the GOP side, a big polling surprise: Former Schwarzenegger Finance Director, former Congressman, former State Senator Tom Campbell has opened up a lead in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. A recent poll put Campbell at 17%, former eBay executive Meg Whitman at 10% and Insurance Commish Steve Poizner at 7%, with the rest undecided.
The Democrats currently give Attorney General (and former Governor, former State Demo Party Chair, former Mayor of Oakland) Jerry Brown 23.5%; San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom 17.5%; and LA Mayor (and companion of female TV journalists) Antonio Villaraigosa 15.1%.
Obviously, these are early numbers but they do invite some comment. First, Mr. Campbell’s opening up a lead on Ms. Whitman (known among political writers as eMeg) illustrates that his candidacy is to be taken seriously. He has opened this lead in the wake of an aggressive press blitz by Ms. Whitman. Poizner’s low numbers are a puzzle, since he has been extremely aggressive in going after Ms. Whitman. It may be that his attacks on Ms. Whitman blunted her benefits from her press blitz, but also depressed Mr. Poizner’s own upward mobility.
Among Democrats, the Attorney General’s lead in the polls is not impressive. Easily the most well-known candidate on the Demo side, a showing of less than 25% suggests that California Dems don’t feel the kind of connection that will glide him into the Governor’s Mansion (oh, wait, California does NOT have a Governor’s Mansion).
For the latest in political info, keep it right her, at Capitol Rap.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Senate Bill 810, Senator Leno’s Single Payer Legislation, is dead for this year. In a flight of fiscal sanity, the Senate Appropriations Committee decided that the estimated $ 200 billion in annual estimated costs (probably low side, at that) was probably not appropriate inasmuch as the state is broke.
But let’s not be too quick to rush forward with accolades and praises for the Legislature. Last week also saw the birth of an idea by Senator Leland Yee that would have the Legislature take over the University of California system. As one observer told CR, “having the Legislature take over the UC system is a lot like having GM management take over Microsoft.”
Seriously, the UC system isn’t perfect, but their budget is balanced while the state’s budget is $ 25 billion upside down. As another observer observed (observers do that, you know) “this is a whacky proposal for a constitutional amendment to exchange UC’s 141 year track record of independent governance for an exciting new future hunkered down in the Capitol muck of petty politics.”
We’ll keep watch to see if this newest Legislative brainchild grows to adulthood.
But let’s not be too quick to rush forward with accolades and praises for the Legislature. Last week also saw the birth of an idea by Senator Leland Yee that would have the Legislature take over the University of California system. As one observer told CR, “having the Legislature take over the UC system is a lot like having GM management take over Microsoft.”
Seriously, the UC system isn’t perfect, but their budget is balanced while the state’s budget is $ 25 billion upside down. As another observer observed (observers do that, you know) “this is a whacky proposal for a constitutional amendment to exchange UC’s 141 year track record of independent governance for an exciting new future hunkered down in the Capitol muck of petty politics.”
We’ll keep watch to see if this newest Legislative brainchild grows to adulthood.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
There was an earthquake last week, and it wasn’t the one in Los Angeles. The political tremors of the May 19 Special Election were higher on the Political Richter Scale than any event since the Proposition 13 revolt of 1978. Although proponents of the various budget ballot propositions far outspent their opponents, Propositions 1A through 1E all went down to cataclysmic defeat, with none of the ballot measures evening cracking 40% of the vote. Although turnout was low – not even 23% of us even bothered to vote – politicians who underestimate voter anger do so at their very grave peril.
According to a new Survey USA poll, Governor Schwarzenegger’s popularity is at 28% -- and he’s twice as popular as his Legislative cohorts!
This week, the Legislature will begin the task of attempting to balance the state budget. It’s going to be a daunting task – as it stands now, the budget is $ 107 billion. But, the state only took in $ 83 billion in revenue, meaning that the Sacramento powers must find a way to close a $ 24 billion gap. Sacramento insiders have told CR they have serious doubts that the current Sacramento power establishment is up to the task. And, with no federal bailout money on the horizon, the next weeks promise to be interesting ones.
Oh, there is an ancient Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.” Perhaps that curse has been visited upon the State of California.
According to a new Survey USA poll, Governor Schwarzenegger’s popularity is at 28% -- and he’s twice as popular as his Legislative cohorts!
This week, the Legislature will begin the task of attempting to balance the state budget. It’s going to be a daunting task – as it stands now, the budget is $ 107 billion. But, the state only took in $ 83 billion in revenue, meaning that the Sacramento powers must find a way to close a $ 24 billion gap. Sacramento insiders have told CR they have serious doubts that the current Sacramento power establishment is up to the task. And, with no federal bailout money on the horizon, the next weeks promise to be interesting ones.
Oh, there is an ancient Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.” Perhaps that curse has been visited upon the State of California.
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