Post-election Blues

As predicted in the pre-election Capitol Rap, the GOP Tsunami stopped short of California. There are still three races that await further ballot counting (in the Attorney General's race, Republican Steve Cooley clings to a 19,000 vote lead [as of November 10 at 5:28 PM]; two congressional races in seats held by Democrats are currently too close to call), but the rest of the state election results were bad news for Republicans.

The collapse of the Whitman candidacy, the 13% registration gap between Democrats and Republicans (largest in almost 2 decades), and a Republican "enthusiasm factor" that never seemed to materialize in California all accounted for the results.

The Assembly will have 52 Democrats and 28 Republicans when the Legislature reconvenes for the 2011 session, the Senate will be at 25 Democrats and 14 Republicans -- with one vacancy to be filled in January via special election. Especially disappointing for CAHU was the defeat of Assembly Member Mike Villines in the race for Insurance Commissioner. Villines, the former GOP Assembly Leader, had been running even-steven with his opponent with a little over a week to go before the election. Alas, the collapse of the Whitman candidacy spelled doom for the rest of the GOP statewide ticket (with the still unresolved possible exception of Steve Cooley), and swept Villines away.

This is an unhappy result for CAHU, since Democrat David Jones is not a friend of agents and will be expected to be a major stumbling block in any agent friendly initiatives at NAIC.

Moreover, the election of Jerry Brown as Governor virtually guarantees that every bad bill that the previous Governor vetoed (and his record was spotty) will be revived and put on Governor Brown's desk -- assuring that CAHU will be fighting each of those battles.

There were some bright spots in this election: the reapportionment reform efforts that CAHU has championed are now locked into the law with the defeat of the politician inspired Propositon 27; the takeover of the House by Republicans assures that CAHU friend Kevin McCarthy will assume House leadership by becoming House Majority Republican Whip.

All of these results reaffirm a grim reality for CAHU: This will be a very dangerous year that calls for literally every CAHU member to become engaged in the legislative process if our interests are to be protected.

Will the GOP Tsunami break east of the Sierras?

Although the national races are looking more and more optimistic for Republicans, it may be that the Republican trend will not reach to California -- at least insofar as the California Legislature is concerned.

Earlier in the election cycle, Republicans had hopes of pckiing up two Democratic seats -- one held by Alyson Huber in the Lodi area, and a second now held by Joan Buchanan in the Walnut Creek area. It now appears that GOP efforts in those two races will come up short. Moreover, a second Sacramento area seat, now held by termed out Republican Roger Niello, may be in danger of falling into Democratic hands. The Democrats moved $ 400,000 into the campaign coffers of the Democratic candidate in that district. Insiders have told CR that Assembly Republican Leader Martin Garrick may be in for trouble if these current projections hold.

Over in the Senate, what seemed to be a GOP opportunity to unseat Orange County Democrat Lou Correa has gone by the wayside. Even the California Chamber of Commerce has coalesced behind the pro-business Corrrea. Republicans have reasonable hopes of holding the Merced-area Senate seat currently held by the termed out Jeff Denham (who is going to Congress), as their candidate, Anthony Cannella (son of former Democratic Assembly Member Sal Cannella) appears to be leading the Democrat, Anna Caballero.

A currently held Democratic Senate seat in the lower central valley is up for grabs, although current soundings are that the Democrat, Michael Rubio, enjoys a small edge over Republican Tim Thiesen.

Bottom line: Congress may change, but don't look for many changes in the composition of the California Legislature.

The Insurance Commmish Race

One of the down ticket races that has not received much public notice is the race for Insurance Commissioner. CAHU members all understand the importance of this race -- particularly in light of the increased responsibilities given to NAIC under ObamaCare. It matters whether the voice representing California on NAIC is agent-friendly or agent-hostile.

In this race the contrast between the two candidates couldn't be more stark. The Democrat, Assembly Member David Jones from Sacramento, as drunk the Single-Payer Kool-Aid. He has been a co-author of every Single-Payer bill that has been introduced in his six years in the Assembly. His campaign is being largely financed by California's potent trial lawyer lobby and his accession to the office of Insurance Commish would herald grim tidings for CAHU.

The Republican, Assembly Member Mike Villines of the Fresno area, has developed a reputation as being one of California's most thoughtful public officials. He is committed to the agent's role and is already on record as saying that any sales into the Exchange should only be by trained and licensed agents.

The race itself is too close to call. CR has had conversations with the private pollsters who are tracking this race, and, as of today, the race is a flat-footed tie.

This is significant for CAHU because CAHU clients will put great store in CAHU's recommendations for this otherwise low profile office. It is imperative that CAHU members reach out as soon as possible to their clients and let them know the importance of the election of Mike Villines to the quality of their own health care.

Capitol Rap normally doesn't make endorsements, but a more than justified exception is being made in the case of Mike Villines. Contact your clients today. The race will be close, you can make the difference.

Nannies and Wh- - - -.

Given the immense complexity of the problems facing California, it is ironic, but not surprising, that the race for Governor will be decided based on the circumstances of the hiring and firing of a nanny in the Whitman household, and/or crude language by an as yet unidentified (although highly speculated about) Brown aide.

Frankly, the gubernatorial race had received little public interest until the two above referenced events.  Current public polling shows Brown in the lead by about four points, while private polls put his current lead closer to seven points.  Neither side, however, is calling this race over.  It is interesting that the Democrats are sufficiently worried about this race to bring out   Bill Clinton this past weekend, Vice President Biden this week and President Obama this coming weekend to campaign for their ticket.  As one sage, unconnected with either campaign, told CR “they must see something in their private poll data that they don’t like.”

Reportedly, there is real concern among Democratic leadership about voter turnout, one Democratic operative told CR that at a recent “Rock the Vote” event, announcements between musical sets urging people to vote were greeted roundly with booing from the audience.  “This is the reason all of the national all-stars are coming out,” this operative told CR, “they are scared to death that young Democratic voters will stay home and they need to inject some star-power into the race.

Yes, Jerry Brown now leads in the polls by between four and seven points, but will the responders to these polls show up at the real polls on November 2?

Tomorrow:  We look at the race for Insurance Commissioner.

Election Report Week of October 18th

We are coming down to the last two weeks before the election and CR will be publishing on a virtual daily basis during this period.  We have obtained access to the private polling of several political organizations and will sharing those results (without attribution to our sources) with our readers.  We’ll be talking about the race for Governor, the efforts to defeat Proposition 27 (Prop 27 is the politicians’ effort to overturned CAHU backed reapportionment reform that was enacted by voters in 2008), the Insurance Commissioner race, and will be making some judgments concerning the composition of the 2011 State Legislature.

Tomorrow’s report will focus on the Governor’s race.

 

For the latest in political news, keep it right here, at Capitol RAP.

State Legislature Adjourns and Campaign Season Begins

The Legislature adjourned for the year at midnight, September 1, amid a chorus of self-congratulation over meager achievements.  Oh yes, they have to come back at some point to finalize a state budget; best guess among capitol insiders is that a state budget is at least two to three weeks away from fruition.

On the political front, that whistling sound you have heard is Democrats whistling past the cemetery.  National polling for Democrats gets bleaker as Gallup puts the GOP ten points up on the Donkey Guys in generic Congressional races.  This doesn’t bode well for a continuation of a Pelosi Speakership.

Here in California a SurveyUSA poll places Republican Challenger Carly Fiorina 2 points up on incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer, although other polls have Boxer in front.  On the gubernatorial front, it appears that eMeg’s non-stop campaigning from the close of primary election business on June 8 has paid off.  Public polling shows her with leads between three and eight points, depending on the poll, and some national pundits have moved the California Governor’s race into the “leans Republican” category, from the earlier “toss-up” category.  The Senate race is classified as a “toss-up.”

The traditional campaign season begins over Labor Day and conventional wisdom is that this is the time voters will begin to play closer attention.  Capitol Rap will be on top of the latest campaign developments as the political season swings into high gear.  We will keep our readers ahead of the curve.

Update from CRP Convention In San Diego

This last week, we received real validation of CAHU’s political profile in Sacramento.  That CAHU has come so far from the days when one Legislator asked in open committee “What’s a CAHU?” is eloquent testimony to the tremendous dedication of CAHU leadership and members over the years.  Listen now, to the words of CAHU’s Meg McComb, President of McComb Insurance Services:

“My daughter Megan and I attended the CA Republican Party convention in San Diego yesterday afternoon and evening. While not "officially" representing CAHU, I was pleased to introduce myself as a proud member of CAHU.”

“Meg Whitman immediately recognized the name "CAHU", and said, "I hope I am able to attend your Burbank meeting this fall." Senator Tony Strickland said, "CAHU is made up of some terrific individuals who have given me considerable support." Assemblyman Ted Gaines said, "Thank CAHU for their wonderful support." CRP Chair Ron Nehring said, "Please send my best regards to the folks at CAHU."  Assembly Republican Leader Martin Garrick said, "CAHU is a fine association with the right ideas for California business." We had dinner with reps of  Cooperative of American Physicians, including  Director Dr. Hartley Turpin and political consultant Peter Mitchell--they are also familiar with CAHU.”

“I can't thank John Lovell, Steven Lindsay, Neil Crosby, Sam Smith, Bill Robinson and other CAHU leadership enough for their part in making CAHU a standout in the California landscape!”

“The photo below shows us with Meg Whitman, Tony Strickland, and Damon Dunn.”

 

 

Editor’s note:  Ms. McComb is right on the numbers in her praise of Messers Lindsay, Crosby, Smith, Robinson and the rest of CAHU leadership, she is to be forgiven her over enthusiasm for her inclusion of John Lovell into that distinguished group!