CAHU Capitol Rap

Post-election Blues

2010-11-11T15:58:00.000-08:00

As predicted in the pre-election Capitol Rap, the GOP Tsunami stopped short of California. There are still three races that await further ballot counting (in the Attorney General's race, Republican Steve Cooley clings to a 19,000 vote lead [as of November 10 at 5:28 PM]; two congressional races in seats held by Democrats are currently too close to call), but the rest of the state election results were bad news for Republicans.

The collapse of the Whitman candidacy, the 13% registration gap between Democrats and Republicans (largest in almost 2 decades), and a Republican "enthusiasm factor" that never seemed to materialize in California all accounted for the results.

The Assembly will have 52 Democrats and 28 Republicans when the Legislature reconvenes for the 2011 session, the Senate will be at 25 Democrats and 14 Republicans -- with one vacancy to be filled in January via special election. Especially disappointing for CAHU was the defeat of Assembly Member Mike Villines in the race for Insurance Commissioner. Villines, the former GOP Assembly Leader, had been running even-steven with his opponent with a little over a week to go before the election. Alas, the collapse of the Whitman candidacy spelled doom for the rest of the GOP statewide ticket (with the still unresolved possible exception of Steve Cooley), and swept Villines away.

This is an unhappy result for CAHU, since Democrat David Jones is not a friend of agents and will be expected to be a major stumbling block in any agent friendly initiatives at NAIC.

Moreover, the election of Jerry Brown as Governor virtually guarantees that every bad bill that the previous Governor vetoed (and his record was spotty) will be revived and put on Governor Brown's desk -- assuring that CAHU will be fighting each of those battles.

There were some bright spots in this election: the reapportionment reform efforts that CAHU has championed are now locked into the law with the defeat of the politician inspired Propositon 27; the takeover of the House by Republicans assures that CAHU friend Kevin McCarthy will assume House leadership by becoming House Majority Republican Whip.

All of these results reaffirm a grim reality for CAHU: This will be a very dangerous year that calls for literally every CAHU member to become engaged in the legislative process if our interests are to be protected.

Will the GOP Tsunami break east of the Sierras?

2010-10-28T15:21:00.000-07:00

Although the national races are looking more and more optimistic for Republicans, it may be that the Republican trend will not reach to California -- at least insofar as the California Legislature is concerned.

Earlier in the election cycle, Republicans had hopes of pckiing up two Democratic seats -- one held by Alyson Huber in the Lodi area, and a second now held by Joan Buchanan in the Walnut Creek area. It now appears that GOP efforts in those two races will come up short. Moreover, a second Sacramento area seat, now held by termed out Republican Roger Niello, may be in danger of falling into Democratic hands. The Democrats moved $ 400,000 into the campaign coffers of the Democratic candidate in that district. Insiders have told CR that Assembly Republican Leader Martin Garrick may be in for trouble if these current projections hold.

Over in the Senate, what seemed to be a GOP opportunity to unseat Orange County Democrat Lou Correa has gone by the wayside. Even the California Chamber of Commerce has coalesced behind the pro-business Corrrea. Republicans have reasonable hopes of holding the Merced-area Senate seat currently held by the termed out Jeff Denham (who is going to Congress), as their candidate, Anthony Cannella (son of former Democratic Assembly Member Sal Cannella) appears to be leading the Democrat, Anna Caballero.

A currently held Democratic Senate seat in the lower central valley is up for grabs, although current soundings are that the Democrat, Michael Rubio, enjoys a small edge over Republican Tim Thiesen.

Bottom line: Congress may change, but don't look for many changes in the composition of the California Legislature.

The Insurance Commmish Race

2010-10-26T12:22:00.000-07:00

One of the down ticket races that has not received much public notice is the race for Insurance Commissioner. CAHU members all understand the importance of this race -- particularly in light of the increased responsibilities given to NAIC under ObamaCare. It matters whether the voice representing California on NAIC is agent-friendly or agent-hostile.

In this race the contrast between the two candidates couldn't be more stark. The Democrat, Assembly Member David Jones from Sacramento, as drunk the Single-Payer Kool-Aid. He has been a co-author of every Single-Payer bill that has been introduced in his six years in the Assembly. His campaign is being largely financed by California's potent trial lawyer lobby and his accession to the office of Insurance Commish would herald grim tidings for CAHU.

The Republican, Assembly Member Mike Villines of the Fresno area, has developed a reputation as being one of California's most thoughtful public officials. He is committed to the agent's role and is already on record as saying that any sales into the Exchange should only be by trained and licensed agents.

The race itself is too close to call. CR has had conversations with the private pollsters who are tracking this race, and, as of today, the race is a flat-footed tie.

This is significant for CAHU because CAHU clients will put great store in CAHU's recommendations for this otherwise low profile office. It is imperative that CAHU members reach out as soon as possible to their clients and let them know the importance of the election of Mike Villines to the quality of their own health care.

Capitol Rap normally doesn't make endorsements, but a more than justified exception is being made in the case of Mike Villines. Contact your clients today. The race will be close, you can make the difference.

2010-10-20T08:26:00.001-07:00

Nannies and Wh- - - -.

Given the immense complexity of the problems facing California, it is ironic, but not surprising, that the race for Governor will be decided based on the circumstances of the hiring and firing of a nanny in the Whitman household, and/or crude language by an as yet unidentified (although highly speculated about) Brown aide.

Frankly, the gubernatorial race had received little public interest until the two above referenced events. Current public polling shows Brown in the lead by about four points, while private polls put his current lead closer to seven points. Neither side, however, is calling this race over. It is interesting that the Democrats are sufficiently worried about this race to bring out Bill Clinton this past weekend, Vice President Biden this week and President Obama this coming weekend to campaign for their ticket. As one sage, unconnected with either campaign, told CR “they must see something in their private poll data that they don’t like.”

Reportedly, there is real concern among Democratic leadership about voter turnout, one Democratic operative told CR that at a recent “Rock the Vote” event, announcements between musical sets urging people to vote were greeted roundly with booing from the audience. “This is the reason all of the national all-stars are coming out,” this operative told CR, “they are scared to death that young Democratic voters will stay home and they need to inject some star-power into the race.

Yes, Jerry Brown now leads in the polls by between four and seven points, but will the responders to these polls show up at the real polls on November 2?

Tomorrow: We look at the race for Insurance Commissioner.

Election Report Week of October 18th

2010-10-18T14:55:00.000-07:00

We are coming down to the last two weeks before the election and CR will be publishing on a virtual daily basis during this period. We have obtained access to the private polling of several political organizations and will sharing those results (without attribution to our sources) with our readers. We’ll be talking about the race for Governor, the efforts to defeat Proposition 27 (Prop 27 is the politicians’ effort to overturned CAHU backed reapportionment reform that was enacted by voters in 2008), the Insurance Commissioner race, and will be making some judgments concerning the composition of the 2011 State Legislature.

Tomorrow’s report will focus on the Governor’s race.

For the latest in political news, keep it right here, at Capitol RAP.

State Legislature Adjourns and Campaign Season Begins

2010-09-07T08:18:00.000-07:00

The Legislature adjourned for the year at midnight, September 1, amid a chorus of self-congratulation over meager achievements. Oh yes, they have to come back at some point to finalize a state budget; best guess among capitol insiders is that a state budget is at least two to three weeks away from fruition.

On the political front, that whistling sound you have heard is Democrats whistling past the cemetery. National polling for Democrats gets bleaker as Gallup puts the GOP ten points up on the Donkey Guys in generic Congressional races. This doesn’t bode well for a continuation of a Pelosi Speakership.

Here in California a SurveyUSA poll places Republican Challenger Carly Fiorina 2 points up on incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer, although other polls have Boxer in front. On the gubernatorial front, it appears that eMeg’s non-stop campaigning from the close of primary election business on June 8 has paid off. Public polling shows her with leads between three and eight points, depending on the poll, and some national pundits have moved the California Governor’s race into the “leans Republican” category, from the earlier “toss-up” category. The Senate race is classified as a “toss-up.”

The traditional campaign season begins over Labor Day and conventional wisdom is that this is the time voters will begin to play closer attention. Capitol Rap will be on top of the latest campaign developments as the political season swings into high gear. We will keep our readers ahead of the curve.

Update from CRP Convention In San Diego

2010-08-23T09:12:00.000-07:00

This last week, we received real validation of CAHU’s political profile in Sacramento. That CAHU has come so far from the days when one Legislator asked in open committee “What’s a CAHU?” is eloquent testimony to the tremendous dedication of CAHU leadership and members over the years. Listen now, to the words of CAHU’s Meg McComb, President of McComb Insurance Services:

“My daughter Megan and I attended the CA Republican Party convention in San Diego yesterday afternoon and evening. While not "officially" representing CAHU, I was pleased to introduce myself as a proud member of CAHU.”

“Meg Whitman immediately recognized the name "CAHU", and said, "I hope I am able to attend your Burbank meeting this fall." Senator Tony Strickland said, "CAHU is made up of some terrific individuals who have given me considerable support." Assemblyman Ted Gaines said, "Thank CAHU for their wonderful support." CRP Chair Ron Nehring said, "Please send my best regards to the folks at CAHU." Assembly Republican Leader Martin Garrick said, "CAHU is a fine association with the right ideas for California business." We had dinner with reps of Cooperative of American Physicians, including Director Dr. Hartley Turpin and political consultant Peter Mitchell--they are also familiar with CAHU.”

“I can't thank John Lovell, Steven Lindsay, Neil Crosby, Sam Smith, Bill Robinson and other CAHU leadership enough for their part in making CAHU a standout in the California landscape!”

“The photo below shows us with Meg Whitman, Tony Strickland, and Damon Dunn.”

Editor’s note: Ms. McComb is right on the numbers in her praise of Messers Lindsay, Crosby, Smith, Robinson and the rest of CAHU leadership, she is to be forgiven her over enthusiasm for her inclusion of John Lovell into that distinguished group!

Week 8-4-10

2010-08-04T17:06:00.001-07:00

The Democrats Dilemma:

There is a lot of nervousness in the Democratic encampments around the Governor’s race. As Republican nominee eMeg Whitman keeps up her barrage of television ads – some positive, some negative – the Brown campaign has been absent from the airwaves. There have been some “independent” expenditures by labor backers of Brown, but the airwaves belong to eMeg.

The reason? Jerry has “only” $ 30 million in his political warchest, and the self-funded Whitman is on a pace to spend $ 100 million. Bottom line is that Jerry cannot match eMeg dollar for dollar.

Here’s where the nervousness comes in. eMeg has already wiped out Jerry’s 5 point post-primary lead and it making advertising inroads into the traditional Democratic Latino community. There are two competing school of thought in Democrat-Land right now. One suggests that Jerry needs to begin his campaign during the summer months to keep pace with Whitman. If he doesn’t do so, this school of thought holds, he will be so far behind by Labor Day that the race won’t be competitive. This school of thought points out the example of Democratic nominee Phil Angelides, who was silent during the Summer of 2006 after winning a bruising primary from Steve Westly.

There’s a competing school of thought, though, and the example they use is of Jerry’s own sister Kathleen Brown. Kathleen ran against Governor Pete Wilson in 1994, tried to keep pace with the Governor’s campaign during the Summer months and ran out of money a week before the election. In fact, Kathleen Brown had no television ads at all during the final weekend before Election Day.

No decisions have been made, but that sound you hear is growing angst in the Democratic camp over increasingly uncertain gubernatorial prospects.

Week of 7-26-10

2010-07-26T07:58:00.000-07:00

No Legislature is session yet – they all return on August 2, but the politics goes one.

At the top of the list this week was the final result of the 40^th Senatorial District Democratic Primary. Since the district is a safe Democratic district, the Democratic primary results preordain the new Senator. Former Assembly Member (and pro-business moderate) Juan Vargas defeated Assembly Member Mary Salas by a total of 22 votes out of 48,542 case. The results went back and forth on election night, then Salas appeared to be the narrow winner. As late ballots were counted, however, Vargas caught up and ultimately won his narrow victory.

It will be very interesting to see what, if any, impact the Vargas victory has on the leadership of Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg. Already under fire for his candidate selection in the 15^th Senatorial Special Election to fill the seat vacated by the appointment of Abel Maldonado as Light Governor (one source to CR: “Steinberg sent a liberal to do a moderate’s job”), the Vargas victory cannot but help embolden the Steinberg grumblers. Steinberg strongly backed Salas in this race and now faces the prospect of dealing with an incoming Senator whom he tried to defeat.

Are the Steinberg leadership days numbered? Keep it here at CR to find out the latest.

Week of 7-12-10

2010-07-12T08:27:00.000-07:00

Showing remarkable political tone deafness, the Legislature decided to go home for the month of July rather than enact a budget. Although budget negotiations do continue on a staff level and among Legislative leaders and the Administration, don’t look for the Legislature to come back in July to vote on a budget.

Legislation may be on hiatus, but politics goes on. The big news is the latest Field Poll showing the race for Governor now even-steven between the candidates. Moreover, eMeg (GOP nominee Meg Whitman) has been aggressively reaching out to the Latino community (an essential part of the Democratic base) with radio, television and Spanish language billboards in Latino neighborhoods. The Whitman outreach must be meeting with success, as Democratic nominee Jerry Brown threw together a news conference with a number of Latino political warhorses castigating eMeg for advertising in the Latino community. How dare a candidate reach out to voters!

Demonstrating that chutzpah is a bipartisan concept, eMeg’s people put out a news release criticizing the Jerry Brown campaign and its (non)affiliated independent campaigns for “spending too much campaign money on negative advertising” This from a candidate who has spent $ 100 million so far in an effort to get elected Governor, with about $ 5 of that $ 100 million being spent on something other than a negative advertisement. It’s what makes politics fun.

One Senator may be relieved that the Legislature is not in session. Reportedly, grumbling about the stewardship of Senate President Pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg is beginning to get traction. Does this portent a legislative leadership change? Stay tuned to Capitol Rap to find out!

Week of 6-14-10

2010-06-14T08:26:00.000-07:00

The primary election results are in the books and CAHU members have a right to be very proud. Proposition 14, the “top two” primary election measure, was approved by voters by a 54.1 to 45.9 count. CAHU was an early and vigorous supporter of this measure and had a seat on the Proposition 14 campaign steering committee. Although it was opposed by both political parties, the coalition that Governor Schwarzenegger put together carried the day.

The reform that will result from Proposition 14 will be significant – political observers expect that the liberal dominance of the Legislature will be tempered with an increasing moderate voice.

There were two other results in last Tuesday’s election that are worth noting. One demonstrated conservative vigor, while the other showed power on the leftward side of the spectrum.

First, the conservative statement: Take a look at the Republican nomination for Insurance Commissioner. Assembly Member Michael Villines was the former Assembly Republican Leader and was viewed as a rising star in the Republican firmament. On election night, however, he LOST the nomination for Insurance Commissioner to Brian Fitzgerald. Who is Brian Fitzgerald? Well, although many CAHU members will recognize his name as being a staff attorney with the Department of Insurance, he was certainly not known in political circles. As this CR goes to press, Fitzgerald clings to a 5388 vote lead over Assembly Member Villines.

Fitzgerald only spent $ 4,000 on the entire race, while Villines spent hundreds of thousands getting on every Republican slate card in the state. In a low visibility race like Insurance Commish, that kind of a slate card presence should have been enough. But it wasn’t, Fitzgerald torched Villines in vote rich southern California – running up a 56,000 vote margin. Why did that happen? Radio. What, didn’t CR just tell you that Fitzgerald only spent $ 4000 on the race? Where did the radio come from? It wasn’t paid ads, it was talk radio. Specifically, the John and Ken Show on KFI radio in LA covered the southern California media market supporting Fitzgerald and taking Villines to task for violating his no tax pledge.

There are still outstanding votes to be counted, and Villines could still squeak through, but the lesson of the John and Ken Show will not be lost on other Republican candidates.

The second result worth noting was Proposition 16. This was a measure funded with mega-millions from Pacific Gas and Electric that would have made it very difficult for local governments to opt for public power systems. PG & E spent millions on what the political chattering class called extremely slick and effective advertising. They were on virtually every slate card that went out before the election – whether a Democrat or Republican based slate card. And the “No on 16” forces spent less than $ 5000.

On election day, though, Proposition 16 was defeated by 185,000 votes. What happened here? The Social Media happened. Facebook.com, virtually every political blog, myspace.com, led a chorus of eOpposition to Proposition 16. The eOpposition paid off on election day, to the chagrin of PG & E.

There are lessons in both of these instances: Traditional means of communicating with voters – particularly when there is a mobilized grass roots coalition on the other side – are no longer sufficient to win an election. The lesson of 2010 is that an informed citizenry can take back political power. Isn’t that what democracy is supposed to be all about?

Week of June 1, 2010

2010-06-01T08:41:00.001-07:00

The latest spate of polling data has caused a giant “whew” to come out of the Whitman gubernatorial camp. The USC/LA Times poll has eMeg up by over 20 points over Steve Poizner. Private pollsters have told CR that although the USC/LAT poll numbers seem high, that their own polling has eMeg expanding her lead. The jury is still out on the impact of Poizner’s latest campaign ad, however. The Commish has a new ad with Conservative Icon Tom McClintock that takes dead aim at eMeg over the Arizona immigration law. GOP insiders tell CR that the ad is a powerful one, and it may be Poizner’s Hail Mary pass.

In the US Senate race, polling shows former HP CEO Carly Fiorina well in front of former State Senator, former Congressman, former Schwarzenegger Finance Director Tom Campbell. Ironically, though, those same polling numbers suggest that Campbell is the only one of the three GOP Senatorial candidates who can upend Democrat Barbara Boxer. Fiorina backers scoff at the suggestion that she can’t beat Boxer, pointing out that Campbell led Fiorina in the GOP Senate primary until she went on the air with her ads.

Nevertheless, one GOP operative who has no candidate in the race told CR that “Fiorina won’t beat Boxer, she has to explain HP subsidiaries trading with Iran in violation of federal law.” “Trust me,” this operative told CR, “Barbara Boxer is a tough campaigner, she makes Richard Nixon seem like the Dalai Lama.”

Week of May 24th

2010-05-24T08:11:00.001-07:00

It’s now a race for the GOP nomination for Governor. Back in March, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman held a seemingly insurmountable lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Polling data at that time put eMeg at 61%, the Commish at 11%, with 25% undecided. Last week, the same polling company – PPIC – put Whitman at 38%, Poizner at 29% and 31% undecided.

A combination of the Arizona immigration law (Whitman opposes, Poizner (while not specifically supporting it) says that Arizona “has a right” to enact its law; the Tom McClintock endorsement of Poizner (“this isn’t even a close call”, said the conservative icon McClintock); and the Goldman-Sachs imbroglio (eMeg was on the Board of Directors of G-S for a short stint), have caused Whitman's numbers to drop, Poizner's tp rise slightly, and undecided to actually increase by a smidge.

At this point, CR still gives the edge to Whitman, but she’s going to have to achieve a momentum shift. More of the same isn’t working.

Is Sarah Palin looking to make an endorsement in this race? Now THAT would be a game changer!

Week of 5-10-10

2010-05-10T08:06:00.001-07:00

CAHU members coming to DATC this week will hear a lot of chatter about the suddenly competitive race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Public polls now indicate that the Meg Whitman lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has been reduced from a fifty point lead to a ten point margin. In fact, one highly placed GOP Satrap told CR that “Whitman’s lead is now in single digits, and she’s in free-fall.”

The Whitman connection with Goldman-Sachs (eMeg was on the G-S Board of Directors) is an issue that Poizner has been using with gusto in the last weeks. In addition, a very strong endorsement ad from conservative congressional icon Tom McClintock has also given Poizner traction.

This week, the California Democratic Party has jumped into the fray: The CDP is buying over $ 800,000 in ads over the next five days attacking Whitman on, you guessed it, the Goldman-Sachs connection. At this point, the still front running Whitman is being attacked from the right (Poizner) and the left (the CDP) on an issue that appears to have cross-party resonance: the Goldman-Sachs debacle.

Knowledgeable political observers have told CR that the next ten days will be critical for both candidates. Will Meg Whitman be able to solidify her current lead, or will Poizner continue to make gains? Either way a race that seemed like a snore has become very, very interesting.

Week of 5-3-10

2010-05-03T08:12:00.000-07:00

Everyone who has not been in the Witness Protection Program is now familiar with the saga of Goldman-Sachs: How G-S operatives sold consumers on investment products while at the same time undercutting those very products for the institutional profit of G-S and to the detriment of the clients to whom they were pushing the products.

Conflict of interest? You bet. Underhanded? Well, will you ever be able to trust your broker after this episode?

It is ironic that the G-S episode is now in the political community. What? Conflict of interest in politics? Shocking!

Democratic operative Chris Lehane feels that the G-S issue can be used to great impact against potential GOP gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman. He is involved with an “independent” effort to defeat eMeg, known as LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD. Over the past several weeks, LEVEL has been in the forefront of efforts to link eMeg to the G-S debacle. Seems that eMeg was a member of the G-S Board of Directors and Democrats believe that they have finally found the elixir that can slow her run at the Governor’s non-mansion (remember, California does not have a Governor’s mansion).

Goldman-Sachs is feeling the heat – nationwide heat, well beyond a California gubernatorial race. So, Goldman-Sachs has hired a crisis consultant to refurbish their tarnished image.

And who has G-S hired? Well, that would be Mark Fabiani, veteran political operative for Democrats AND THE BUSINESS PARTNER OF CHRIS LEHANE.

So, Fabiani tries to refurbish G-S image, while Lehane tries to link eMeg to G-S current disgrace. Seems as if both Fabiani and Lehane could have worked for G-S when they were selling the worthless investment products.

* * * * *

If you have not already done so, make your plans to attend CAHU’s DAY AT THE CAPITOL. It has never been so important to attend as it is this year.

Make Plans to Come to Day at the Capitol 2010

2010-04-26T08:40:00.001-07:00

If you have not yet made plans to come to CAHU’s DAY AT THE CAPITOL (DATC), you need to do so as soon as possible. Given the events that have occurred in Washington, and the role that will devolve to states, there has never been a more important year since 1993 to come to DATC. This is your opportunity to help shape events for agents. In other words, your participation is important if agents are to stay in business.

DATC will feature a reception on May 11 for Assembly Republican Leader Martin Garrick. There is a certain symmetry to this event: CAHU was one of the very first organizations to support Assembly Member Garrick’s candidacy when he first ran for the Assembly, and now he has risen to the rank of Assembly Republican Leader.

On May 12, the plenary session at the Sheraton Grand highlight a presentation by Janet Trautwein, CEO of NAHU, who will give an update on events on the national scene and what that will mean for agents. We’ll also hear two excellent “tell it like it is” presentations on the California scene. The first will be by Dan Morain, who is the Senior Editor-Opinion of the Sacramento Bee. Dan will talk about how things really work in Sacramento. The second is by former Senator Jim Brulte, who is one of the two best political minds among current and former elected officials. Senator Brulte will give his forever informational and entertaining presentations about the state of California politics.

Armed with this information, CAHU members will be able to spend the afternoon as “citizen lobbyists”, telling the CAHU story over at the Capitol to key members of the Legislature.

Make plans to come to DATC. Do it today.

To Register go to http://www.cahu.org/ and click on Day at the Capitol banner.

Gubernatorial Campaign Update

2010-04-12T08:48:00.000-07:00

The decision of former eBay CEO Meg Whitman to put another $ 20 million into her campaign for Governor has dramatically altered the conventional political map. Thus far, eMeg is burying State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner by 40 points in the Republican primary – even though Poizner is the only statewide GOP elected official other than Governor Schwarzenegger. In addition, she has moved ahead of Democratic candidate Jerry Brown in head to head polling.

Even more significant, eMeg has erased the gender gap among female voters that historically has plagued the GOP. Current polling shows the difference between Brown and the pro-choice Whitman as being negligible.

Brown currently has $ 15 million salted away for his run at the Governor’s mansion (actually California doesn’t have a Governor’s mansion). Under normal circumstances, this is enough for a solid 12—15 week campaign; but that may not be enough against Whitman’s mega-spending.

If the GOP primary campaign is any indication, Whitman can be expected to be up on the air for the general election from the day after the primary election. Although some pundits theorize that at some point a campaign spends so much money that they reach diminishing returns (eMeg has spent $ 57 million so far), that’s simply theory, and it is not borne out by the polling numbers that are currently out there.

Look for the 2010 Governor’s race to be like no other election in California history. The outcome is very much in doubt.

Marijuana on the Ballot and Business Impact

2010-04-05T08:30:00.000-07:00

Well, Californians are going to vote on legalizing marijuana this Fall.

Actually, voters won’t really have to get to the larger question of whether or not marijuana should be legalized, because the measure is so badly worded (you wonder what those guys were smoking when they wrote it) it will cost California and California businesses billions of dollars. Here’s why:

Hidden within the marijuana legalization measure that will be on the November ballot is Section 11304 (c). That provision provides as follows:

(c) No person shall be punished, fined, discriminated against, or be denied any right or privilege for lawfully engaging in any conduct permitted by this Act or authorized pursuant to Section 11301 of this Act. Provided however, that the existing right of an employer to address consumption that actually impairs job performance by an employee shall not be affected.

Here’s what this means: An employee can test dirty for marijuana, can bring marijuana to work, can probably consume marijuana (at least in non-smokeable form) at the workplace with no consequence from the employer. We have created a ridiculous situation where an employer can send an employee home (or even terminate that employee) if they have liquor on their breath, but can do nothing about an employee who tests dirty for marijuana and is even in possession of marijuana at the workplace.

The right of an employer is limited to the ability “to address consumption” only where that consumption has ACTUALLY IMPAIRED the job performance of a specific employee. In other words, the employer cannot even take preventive measures where an employee has tested dirty for marijuana in their system. This ability to “address consumption” is ridiculously narrow and only permits after the fact accountability: The employer’s only recourse is to speak with the employee after the industrial accident has occurred.

The inevitable consequence of this provision will be higher insurance rates and higher workers compensation rates for California employers.

Further, this section also makes it impossible for a California employer to be in compliance with the federal Drug-Free Workplace Act of 1988. As you know, the Drug-Free Workplace act provides that it is a condition precedent of receiving many federal contracts for the prospective contractor to be able to affirm that their workplace is drug-free. If this measure passes, no California employer will be able to bid with confidence on federal contracts – they will be unable to make this affirmation.

Who would have thought that a marijuana legalization initiative would also be a job-killer?

Seen and Heard at Republican State Convention

2010-03-15T09:35:00.000-07:00

By John Lovell

Seen and heard at the Republican State Convention in Santa Clara:

Punchy, well put together speech by GOP Senatorial hopeful Carly Fiorina accompanied by a video “Hot Air” showing Senator Barbara Boxer, whom Carly wants to replace, floating above terra firma like a, you guessed it, hot air balloon.

Tom McClintock, CAHU friend and member of Congress, dissing Meg Whitman as “Arnold Schwarzenegger’s third term.” The Congressman is supporting Insurance Commish Steve Poizner.

Meg Whitman doing a surprise press conference with political press and handling herself extremely well.

Line of the weekend, GOP Senatorial hopeful Tom Campbell referring to Democratic policies as “soft socialism.”

No details from Poizner or Whitman on how to deal with the state’s $ 20 billion debt. Jerry Brown (not at the Republican Convention) has been similarly silent on dealing with said debt. All three candidates agree: silence is golden.

No discussion by GOP Senatorial hopefuls Fiorina, DeVore or Campbell on social issues, all three focusing instead on the miserable state of the economy and their views (uniformly negative) of Senator Boxer’s economic acumen.

Scheduled Tea Party Rally at the convention is a bust, about 150 people standing around.

CR’s scorecard: Whitman (Governor) and Fiorina (Senator) were the winners of the weekend, although McClintock’s Schwarzenegger third term comment gets honorable mention.

Brown Throws Hat in The Ring

2010-03-08T08:23:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

Jerry Brown made it official last week – he’s running for Governor. Actually, the big news would have been if Jerry had decided not to run. Jerry has conducted a non-campaign that kept any major challengers out of the race in the Democratic primary, and, into the bargain, forced San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom out of a primary challenge to Brown. Newsom is now running for Lieutenant Governor, an office he publicly scorned during his stint as a gubernatorial candidate.

On the Republican side, Insurance Commish Steve Poizner, despite trailing former eBay executive Meg Whitman by over 20 points, walked away with the endorsement of the California Republican Assembly, the state’s leading grass-roots Republican volunteer organization. CRA, which is the voice of Republican conservatives, was founded in the 1930’s – ironically by then California Attorney General and later Governor and US Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl Warren. The endorsement is an important one for Poizner, because it gives him conservative bona fides in what promises to be a contentious primary campaign on the GOP side.

Start making your plans to come on up to Sacramento for DATC on May 11 and May 12. You’ll get to meet newly minted GOP Assembly Leader Martin Garrick, and hear from Sacto Bee Political Editor Dan Morain, as well as GOP political guru Jim Brulte. For more details and registration information, go to www.cahu.org and click on the Day at the Capitol banner.

Political Pandejos

2010-02-18T14:05:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

CR’s wife is Latina and is fluent in Spanish; CR is occasionally called out for being a “Pendejo” by said wife. “Pendejo” (pronounced pen-DAY-ho) is a pejorative Spanish-language word that loosely translates into being an idiot, only much, much worse. Suffice to say, Latinas and Latinos never aspire to be Pendejos.

That title has been assumed by Assembly Democrats in their refusal to confirm Senator Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor. Senator Maldonado, a moderate Republican who broke with his fellow Republicans and voted for the budget last year, was appointed to the office of Lieutenant Governor by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The office was vacated when the prior incumbent, John Garamendi, was elected to Congress.

Senator Maldonado’s appointment was confirmed by the Senate on a strong bi-partisan vote. When he reached the Assembly, however, the nomination ran into rough sledding. First, the Assembly Rules Committee racked Senator Maldonado over the coals for having the temerity to support the open primary ballot measure (CAHU supports that same measure). Eventually, that Committee sent the Maldonado nomination to the floor without recommendation.

After a multi-hour debate, the nomination fell short of confirmation on the Assembly floor with only 37 Legislators voting yes and 35 voting no.

Now the fun began. First, a serious legal question arose as to whether Maldonado could take office anyway. Under the Constitution, a gubernatorial appointment to a constitutional office is deemed approved unless one legislative house rejects the nomination. Well, is the failure to approve a “rejection”? It’s a matter of serious legal dispute with both sides making strong points. Nevertheless, the Assembly could have avoided any legal issues by simply phrasing the proposed resolution more artfully. Pity the Assembly Rules Committee wasted so much time criticizing the open primary ballot measure and never bothered properly wording the confirmation/rejection agenda item.

The Assembly Speaker tried to say that failure to confirm met rejection, but the Governor announced that he intended to swear in Maldonado anyway. Meanwhile, gleeful Republicans were all over Spanish language radio with ads criticizing the Democrats for standing in the way of the appointment of a Latino. Political commentators mercilessly criticized Assembly Democrats for rejecting a Republican moderate – how, they asked, could Democrats expect Republicans to buck their own party leadership to pass a budget (distinctly more important than who holds the office of Lieutenant Governor), when they gave moderate Republicans who had in fact joined them to pass budgets in the past the back of their legislative hand???

Recognizing the silliness of swearing Maldonado in as Lieutenant Governor under a cloud, the Governor withdrew the nomination – then resubmitted it – giving the process another 90 days to run and the Assembly Democrats yet another opportunity to screw things up.

Pendejos??? There are a lot of Assembly Democrats walking around the Capitol today with the letter “P” firmly emblazoned on their foreheads.

Why California Proposition 14 is Important to CAHU

2010-02-08T08:56:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell
Lobbyist

It’s official: the June ballot measure to enact a non-partisan primary in California is Proposition 14.

Under Proposition 14, all primary elections (except for Presidential primary contests) will be open to all voters, regardless of party. The top two candidates in the primary will face off against each other in the general election.

This is an extremely important reform – strongly supported by CAHU – because it will bring the Legislature more toward the center. Here’s why: Right now, all of the primaries are closed primaries and virtually all districts are safe. What this means is that the only elections that matter is the primary election in the majority party (for that district) once the incumbent has termed out. In closed primaries, the people who vote are the activists – the true believers. This means that a Democratic primary is dominated by voters who are considerably to the left of most ordinary people who call themselves Democrats. Republican primaries are dominated by voters who are to the ideological right of ordinary Republicans. Therefore, the way a candidate wins in a closed primary is to run to the extremes in their respective party.

These are the only elections in America where a candidate wins by running to the extremes.

With an open primary, party won’t matter. Everyone gets to vote and the top two candidates face off against each other in the Fall. That means that in a safe Democratic district, Republican voters will be the decisive factor in determining what type of Democrat goes to Sacramento. In a safe Republican district, Democratic voters will have a similar influence.

And what this means is that the entire Legislature will move to the center. CAHU does very well when we can speak with centrist Legislators – be they Democrat or Republican.

As to be expected, both political parties hate Proposition 14. Initially, they pledged to spend upwards of $ 20 million to defeat Proposition 14. That may be changing: Both parties will have to be spending considerable funds in either electing or protecting their respective candidates. In other words, the good guys have a chance to win one!

CAHU-PAC gave $ 100,000 to help pass Proposition 14: We have made our voices heard and we are on the verge of dramatically changing California.

Week of 1-25-10

2010-01-25T08:31:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell
CAHU Lobbyist

Political events of seismic proportions have occurred in the last ten days. First, there was the move of Tom Campbell from the Governor’s race over to the race for the GOP nomination for the right to challenge Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer for her US Senate Seat. Then the Massachusetts Earthquake hit where the bluest of blue states elected a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat.

The events – although not planned – are linked. Tom Campbell is a much better candidate for US Senate than he was for Governor. In fact, the first polls taken after his switch show him leading fellow Republicans Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore for his party’s nod. In fact, his candidacy raises the possibility that Senator Boxer could be defeated come November. No political observer with whom CR has spoken thinks that either Fiorina or DeVore had much of a chance of upending Boxer – but Campbell is different: the press likes him and he brings neither corporate baggage (Fiorina led HP at a time when they were allegedly evading laws against trade with Iran), nor is he considered too extreme (DeVore is known as one of the most conservative members of the Assembly). Ironically, Campbell is actually to the left of Boxer on some public safety issues – but it remains to be seen whether those issues will be part of a November Senate race.

On the gubernatorial side, Meg Whitman moves to a commanding lead over Insurance Commish Steve Poizner with Campbell out of the race. Further, either Whitman or Poizner runs within 10 points of likely Demo nod Jerry Brown. That number is significant since Jerry held a 20 point margin over both eMeg and Smokestack Steve in the last polling.

Massachusetts suggests that it is too early – way too early – for Boxer to sign another DC apartment lease or for Brown to start planning his cabinet.

The Rap is Back

2010-01-05T09:47:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell
CAHU Lobbyist

CR took the legislative recess time off, but is now back for the upcoming session – a session that promises to be leavened by a healthy dose of politics.

Look for discussions about the ins and outs of the open primary ballot measure – a critically important ballot measure: CAHU-PAC has made a $ 100,000 contribution towards its passage. And don’t forget, there’s a Governor’s race coming up this year. Right now, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman seems to have a comfortable lead in the race for the GOP nomination, but a highly respected Republican politico told CR last week that Insurance Commish Steve Poizner “would smoke eMeg once the campaign gets going.” We’ll reserve judgment on that one. The other statewide races are starting to take shape as new names come into the fray. The Attorney General race just got turned upside down with the news that respected LA District Attorney Steve Cooley will be entering the race for the GOP nomination. He’ll square off against State Senator Tom Harman. Harman’s not as well known as Cooley, but he does have the advantage of a head start and the counsel of Wayne Johnson, one of the best campaign consultants in California (CR believes he IS the best).

So, we’ll have a lot to talk about this year; for the latest in political news and gossip, keep it right here, at Capitol Rap.

Conflict over Maldonado Confirmation as Lt. Governor

2009-11-30T08:26:00.001-08:00

By John Lovell

The words were barely out of the Governor’s mouth announcing his intent to appoint Senator Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor when Senate President Pro Tempore announced that he had “grave doubts” over confirming Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor.

Steinberg expressed a concern over the $ 2 million it would cost to have a special election to fill Senator Maldonado’s Senate seat.

Whatever the costs of a special election, the real agenda is political: In the wake of the political tsunami that hit Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia, Capitol Democrats fear that 2010 could also be a bad Democratic year in California – particularly in a low turn-out special election.

And Democrats are not alone. There are three State Senators – two Republican and one Democrat – who themselves would like to be Lieutenant Governor. None of them are interested in giving Senator Maldonado the leg-up of incumbency.

None of this means, however, that Maldonado will not be confirmed. If Maldonado is rejected by the Legislature, he will remain in the Senate, but will most assuredly be less likely to break ranks with his Republican colleagues (as he has in the past) to vote for a budget.

The State Constitution requires that Maldonado must be confirmed by both houses of the Legislature. But it also provides that if the Legislature takes no action within 90 days, then Senator Maldonado will be deemed confirmed.

CR will be watching the political tealeaves to give you a distant early warning as to how all of this plays out.

2009-11-16T08:22:00.000-08:00

If you are not a member of CAHU-PAC, you need to join today. If everyone in CAHU sets aside $ 21.00 per month for CAHU-PAC, we will have the resources to make a major change in how business is done in Sacramento. $ 21.00 isn’t a lot of money – most of us dissipate that much in any given day without even noticing it. Frankly, if a CAHU member cannot afford to give CAHU-PAC $ 21.00 a month, they have probably chosen the wrong profession and need to go do something else.

It’s easy, just contact Patrice Loretta at CAHU’s office (800-322-5934) and tell her that you want $ 21.00 per month charged to your credit card – or, taken out of your checking account.

Here’s why it’s particularly important this year – the Legislature has placed a ballot measure on the June 2010 ballot that will change the law to provide that all primary elections for state legislative offices will be NON-PARTISAN. This change is terribly important to CAHU because it will result in the election of more moderate, anti-single payor Legislators. Currently, this measure runs well in the polls, but BOTH political parties will be spending mega-dollars in an effort to mislead the public and get them to reject this measure. For us to win, all reasonable groups – including CAHU – must mobilize resources to assure that the “yes” campaign is fully funded.

That’s where each of us come in. Call Patrice Loretta this week, tell her that you want to set aside $ 21.00 per month to help CAHU-PAC. Do it today, the business you save could be your own.

2009-10-12T08:17:00.001-07:00

If you have not yet made plans to attend the annual CAHU Sales Conference, do so today. The festivities will run October 21 and 22 at the Burbank Marriott Hotel (which, for those of you who don’t know, serves a great martini at their restaurant/bar). The CAHU Sales Conference is, in effect, our state convention, and the information gleaned there can be useful throughout the entire year.

The President’s reception this year promises to be particularly inspiring and will help get us mobilized for the challenges that we face in the near and distant future. A series of speakers will give CAHU members important tools that can be used to enhance their individual businesses as well as to hone the effectiveness of the CAHU message with opinion makers in either Sacramento, or Washington.

The CAHU Sales Conference – be there!

2009-10-05T08:27:00.001-07:00

The continued political nattering about GOP nomination hopeful Meg Whitman continues apace. The Whitman campaign not only has not developed an effective response to her admittedly spotty voting record, but now information has come out that eMeg made a political endorsement in the 2004 US Senate Race for . . . . drum roll please. . . . . . Barbara Boxer! For those who neglected to vote in that election, Boxer was the Democrat in that race. Convincing voters in a Republican gubernatorial primary that their standard bearer for the statehouse should be a candidate who endorsed Senator Boxer could prove to be daunting.

A major iceberg is looming in Democratic gubernatorial seas, however. Expatriate pedophile, sexual predator, movie producer Roman Polanski has been arrested in Switzerland. The expatriate pedophile, sexual predator, movie producer Polanski pleaded guilty in 1978 to unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor, and fled the country to avoid incarceration. Efforts to extradite the EP,SP, MP Polanski will most assuredly involve the Attorney General’s office. Ever out of touch Hollywood has come out foursquare behind the EP,SP,MP Polanski. The Hollywood folks are the big check writers for Democratic candidates in California statewide elections. CR wonders if there will be public statements from either of the Democratic candidates about the extradition efforts.

2009-09-28T08:22:00.001-07:00

The Republicans held their annual convention this weekend in Indian Wells. The temperatures outside climbed as high as 117, but the political temperatures inside the air conditioned convention hotel also approached triple digits. The gubernatorial campaign of former eBay CEO Meg Whitman arrived at the convention in crisis. The putative frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination was reeling from an investigative piece that appeared in the Sacramento Bee suggesting that eMeg had never registered to vote in California before 2002. Waiting until you are 46 to register to vote (particularly if you live in a state where the voting age is 81) could be viewed as deplorable procrastination by one’s appointments. And it was. Insurance Commish Steve Poizner put out a piece for GOP confabers pointing out that not only had eMeg failed to register before 2002, but that she missed voting for Arnold in the historical 2003 recall and also missed voting for the Governor’s special election ballot measures in 2005. The Poizner piece made fun of the fact that eMeg’s 2002 voter registration meant that she missed both chances to vote for her own campaign chair, former Governor Pete Wilson.

Fun and hijinks aside, it remains to be seen if this type of spotty voting record will derail the Whitman candidacy. Historically, voters do not treat candidates kindly when their non-voting habits are discovered. This, however, may be a unique political year and Ms. Whitman may be able to ride out this storm. For his part, GOP Insurance Commish Steve Poizner has had to answer questions about a political contribution to Al Gore (hint: for those who may have missed voting in the 2000 Presidential race, Gore was not the Republican). Poizner was able to deflect this piece of business by telling GOP confabers that his wife is a Democrat and the money came out of their joint checking account.

Oh, one more thing, Poizner formally asked Whitman to withdraw from the race due to her dubious voting history. eMeg declined to do so.

2009-09-21T11:41:00.000-07:00

The big political news this week centered in the Democratic half of the Governor’s race. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom obtained the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton in his race for the statehouse. While some cynics would suggest that this endorsement is just a matter of the adultery caucus sticking together, the fact is that the Clinton endorsement should help Mayor Newsom with his fundraising. Reportedly, Newsom supporters are now very optimistic that receipt of the Bubba Seal of Approval will unlock the checkbooks of Hollywood Clintonistas.

Less well reported, but significant for other reasons was the endorsement of Mayor Newsom by former State Senator Sheila Kuehl. Kuehl has legitimate street cred among the bed wetter liberals of the Democratic Party, and support of this influential group in a Democratic Primary is critical to Newsom if he is going to upset Jerry Brown.

Brown, for his part, is officially on the sidelines in the gubernatorial race. He told CR that he would not make a formal announcement until 2010, which in these days is considered a late entry.

On the GOP side, frontrunner Meg Whitman still has yet to appear in any debates with her two opponents, former Schwarzenegger Finance Director Tom Campbell and Current Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Although the press has been taking shots at her, her aversion to debate evidently has not cost eMeg in the polls.

2009-09-14T09:09:00.000-07:00

The Legislature gaveled down for the year on September 11. Well, actually the Assembly didn’t give up the ghost until 6:20 AM on Saturday, September 12, four hours after the Senate shut things down. And they evidently haven’t quit for the year since the Capitol talk is that the Governor is going to call them back into special session sometime in the next two weeks.

Assembly Member Mike Duvall resigned his seat in the wake of the release of recordings of locker-room narrations of his romps with two mistresses (aren’t there laws about being one over the limit? No, that’s hunting.). He was regaling fellow Republican Assembly Member Jeff Miller prior to the beginning of a committee hearing. The problem for Duvall was that, unbeknownst to him, his microphone was on! There are some people around the capitol who speculate that it was Miller who surreptitiously turned Duvall’s microphone. CR has been told that Assembly Member Miller did obtain a copy of the tape from Assembly staff. The big question roiling around the capitol is whether it was Miller who released the tape to the press. Miller and his staff deny any leakage. However, a look at the map of the overlapping districts reveals that Miller and Duvall could have – down the road – been facing each other in a Republican primary for a State Senate seat. There is clearly more to follow here.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina appears to have hit a speed bump in her efforts to wrest the US Senate seat from Barbara (Call me Senator) Boxer. Political tongues are wagging about the possibility that Hewlett-Packard, though subsidiaries, may have been trading with Iran (while our government was prohibiting trade with that nation) on her watch as CEO. You don’t want to run for US Senate where you have to discuss “what did Carly know and when did she know it?”

It’s now official – former State Controller (and CAHU friend) Steve Westly has said he will NOT be running for Governor in 2010. That’s bad news for those who were hoping for a business friendly Democrat in that party’s primary. CR has been told that Mr. Westly hasn’t given up on elective office and will be running at some point in the future.

2009-08-17T08:08:00.000-07:00

The latest gubernatorial news is good for SF Mayor Gavin Newsom – well, at least not bad. Well, not too bad. The good part is the match-up numbers that have shown in a Research 2000 poll. The horse race between Attorney General Jerry Brown and the SF Mayor puts Brown at 29%; Hizzoner the Mayor at 20%. Not bad for Newsom. Of course the favorable unfavorable numbers are not so good. Brown shows in at 48% Fave and 37% unfavorable. Newsom is upside down on this one, coming in at 40% favorable and 42% unfavorable.

On the GOP side eMeg Whitman, she of eBay fame, leads former State Senator, former Congressman, former Schwarzenegger Finance Director Tom Campbell by a margin of 27% to 21%, with Insurance Commish Steve Poizner trailing with 9%. It is interesting that the only office holder in the Republican race – and a statewide one at that – is polling so badly.

Brown beats any Republican by 6 to 9 points, while Newsom runs even-steven with all GOP candidates.

The big news, though is the super large undecided in both races. Suggesting that there is room in either primary for another candidate. Of late the names of former Controller (and CAHU friend) Steve Westly, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez and Treasurer Bill Lockyer have been discussed on the Democratic side. No other GOP names have surfaced, but that large undecided pool has got to be of interest to a number of putative candidates.

California Budget Enacted

2009-07-27T08:13:00.000-07:00

It took all day and night on Thursday, and through Friday afternoon, but the Legislature finally enacted a budget that was sent to the Governor. It’s an ugly one – looks a lot like the offspring from the love scene in DELIVERANCE, but it represents a set of bad choices in an environment where there were no good choices.

The Legislature now goes home for a three week recess – returning on August 17 for the final sprint to until they recess for the year on September 11. There will be some dribs and drabs of legislation, the controversial Corrections reduction piece of the budget that still needs to be acted upon, and the usual late night, end of session hijinks as various interests try to hijack bills in the dying hours of the session.

On the political front, the Gavin Newsom for Governor campaign may have hit a speed bump en route to contesting the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The San Francisco Chronicle ran an in depth story dissecting the San Francisco Mayor’s various claims about the successes of his Administration. Why is this important? Well, the Mayor (called “Prince Gavin” by his detractors) has been making his record as Mayor the centerpiece of his gubernatorial campaign. To the extent the Chronicle discredits some of his claims, his race to defeat better known former Governor, former State Democratic Chair, former Oakland Mayor, and current Attorney General Jerry Brown will become a longer shot.

Time for Radical Change

2009-07-20T08:21:00.000-07:00

If there ever was a time for radical changes in state government’s structure, now appears to be the time. Current opinion polls place the Governor’s job approval rating at 24% -- among the lowest ratings for any Governor in the country. The Legislature does even worse – their collective approval rating is 9%!

A ballot measure has been filed that would convert the Legislature to part-time status. Should the sponsors of that measure get the dollars together (it takes about $ 1.5 million to qualify an initiative in California), the current level of anger virtually guarantees passage of what is in reality a measure that would make things worse, but reflects the anger of the electorate toward all things Sacramento.

Legislators and the Governor aren’t likely to add to their long-term popularity with the electorate if they adopt the budget in its current form. That budget calls for the early release of 20,000 felons from state prison. According to the RAND Commission, the release of 20,000 inmates will result in the commission of 182,000 new crimes over the next three years, with 36,000 of those new crimes being violent felonies. As one observer told CR: “not the best calling card; how would you like to be running for office and say ‘hi, I’m Joe Candidate and I just voted to place 20,000 felons into your neighborhood’”

2009-07-13T08:08:00.000-07:00

Some bits and pieces . . . .

This past week saw budget discussions move forward in fits and starts. At the beginning of the week, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass absented herself from the budget negotiations as a way of expressing her displeasure over some of the direction the Governor was attempting to move things. She returned on Friday and from all accounts it appears that the parties are making progress in the budget discussions. Best guess is that there will be some type of budget sometime early in the week.

Former Assembly Speaker and San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown – one of the wiser political observers – thinks that the pundits have it all wrong about the Sarah Palin resignation. According to Brown, this now frees Ms. Palin up to aggressively campaign for Republicans around the nation for the next few years, build up chits among Republican satraps, and raise needed funds for a Presidential run. Brown pointed out that Alaska is a day and a half from the rest of the country and that she would risk being skewered as an absentee Governor should she try to take care of political business in the rest of the state.

Nevada Senator John Ensign’s political career continues to circle the drain. Latest word is that his PARENTS (!) paid $ 96,000 to his former mistress and her husband. Seems Ensign needs mommy and daddy to pay hush money.

Governor Mark Sanford has finally, mercifully, stopped speaking in public about Argentine soul mates; given this field, CR believes that former Speaker/Mayor Brown may have a point – Sarah Barracuda is looking awfully much like a front-runner for the GOP nod in 2012.

A Dedicated Voice Stilled

2009-07-06T09:56:00.000-07:00

Capitol Rap joins with all CAHU members in mourning the loss of our beloved Lloyd Baum. Lloyd was the epitome of the CAHU Citizen Lobbyist. He gave tirelessly of himself with the CAHU Legislative Committee, worked hard to develop relationships at the capitol, and gave scholarships to other CAHU members so they could attend Day At The Capitol. Integrity, a work ethic that wouldn’t quit, dedication to CAHU and to the role of the agent. Lloyd Baum was truly special. He will be missed by all of us.

2009-06-30T08:43:00.000-07:00

The personal hijinks of politicians have become endemic in the last several months. LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa left his wife for LA TV Anchor # 1; Mayor Gavin Newsom admitted to sleeping with the wife of one of his staffers; John Edwards confirmed the truth of the National Enquirer stories about his meanderings; Governor Elliot Spitzer, although a lawyer, didn’t understand that there is no such thing as a hooker-politician privilege; Senator David Vitter proved that ignorance of the lack of a hooker-politician was bipartisan; Senator John Ensign is evidently an admirer of SF Mayor Newsom, because, he too, slept with the wife of one of his staffers – a fine example of bipartisanship; Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina is still trying to find the Appalachian Trail (he misses it by taking the Buenos Aires off ramp); and Antonio Villaraigosa has now taken up with LA TV Anchor # 2.

Would former Florida Congressman Mark Foley say that “all of these guys are on the same page.?”

It has been conventional wisdom of political pundits since Bill Clinton finished his Monica enhanced two terms with a 60% approval rate that the private foibles of politicians will not hurt them politically.

CR has spoken to a number of pollsters and campaign professionals who suggest that the conventional wisdom of the pundits is more conventional than wise. As one operative told CR, “Bill Clinton was the exception, it will never happen again, politicians will be held accountable for their personal conduct and personal character.”

An examination of what has happened to the politicians listed above suggests that the operatives, not the pundits, are correct.

Mayor Villaraigosa’s approval numbers plummeted after news of his leaving his wife became known – interestingly, his approval ratings among Hispanic women were dismal. John Edwards has disappeared from public life – the word is that his former campaign manager David Bonier refuses to even return his calls. Elliot Spitzer’s career is non-existent and “Diaper Dave” Vitter (a nickname that stems from some Vitter-hooker email correspondence) finds himself so vulnerable in the upcoming election that Republicans are thinking of running a primary candidate against him. The recent Ensign disclosures prompted the Newsom campaign to look at their collective shoes and say nothing, as his poll numbers lag behind Jerry Brown. And Governor Sanford has become a national laughingstock.

Contrary to post-Clinton pundits, it appears that personal conduct does count for something politically. This may be yet another example of voters having better instincts than the media elite. Ordinary voters get it; if a candidate cannot even keep his word to his spouse, does his word have any value at all?

2009-06-22T14:52:00.001-07:00

Parents of Sacramento-based female TV anchors breathed a collective sigh of relief today when LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa made it official – the skirt-chasing LA Mayor is not going to be running for Governor. The Mayor’s announcement made official what politicos around the state have been telling CR for the last three months, namely that the Mayor’s eroding popularity has made a gubernatorial candidacy unrealistic.

At this point, the Democratic race for Governor appears to be shaking out as a Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco; and Jerry Brown, the state’s Attorney General. With Villaraigosa out of the race, the current thinking is that Latino voters (who were 68% inclined to vote for the LA Mayor) will drift over to Jerry Brown. Politicos in the know have told CR that Brown has a long history with California’s Latino community and was one of the first politicians – back in the 1970’s – to recognize the political potential of that community.

So, short-term advantage to Brown (and an incalculable advantage to parents of Sacramento-based female TV anchors) if this race remains a two person race. The larger question is whether anyone else will get into the race. Again, people in the political know have been telling CR for the last month that there is manifestly room in the Democratic Primary for another candidate.

2009-06-08T08:23:00.000-07:00

A lot of stuff happening on the political front this last week. First, LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has another new girlfriend, and like the last one, she’s also in TV news! Fathers of female Sacramento TV journalists better guard their daughters if Villaraigosa runs for Governor and succeeds! Seriously, while politicians are accorded a private life of sorts, many political operatives shared with CR that this latest disclosure will not help the Mayor. “It just reminds voters about his affair with the first TV news girlfriend,” said one political observer, “and that is a story Mayor Tony V. doesn’t want retold.” Increasingly, CR his hearing that LA’s beleaguered Mayor will not be running for Governor in this election cycle.

On the GOP side, a big polling surprise: Former Schwarzenegger Finance Director, former Congressman, former State Senator Tom Campbell has opened up a lead in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. A recent poll put Campbell at 17%, former eBay executive Meg Whitman at 10% and Insurance Commish Steve Poizner at 7%, with the rest undecided.

The Democrats currently give Attorney General (and former Governor, former State Demo Party Chair, former Mayor of Oakland) Jerry Brown 23.5%; San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom 17.5%; and LA Mayor (and companion of female TV journalists) Antonio Villaraigosa 15.1%.

Obviously, these are early numbers but they do invite some comment. First, Mr. Campbell’s opening up a lead on Ms. Whitman (known among political writers as eMeg) illustrates that his candidacy is to be taken seriously. He has opened this lead in the wake of an aggressive press blitz by Ms. Whitman. Poizner’s low numbers are a puzzle, since he has been extremely aggressive in going after Ms. Whitman. It may be that his attacks on Ms. Whitman blunted her benefits from her press blitz, but also depressed Mr. Poizner’s own upward mobility.

Among Democrats, the Attorney General’s lead in the polls is not impressive. Easily the most well-known candidate on the Demo side, a showing of less than 25% suggests that California Dems don’t feel the kind of connection that will glide him into the Governor’s Mansion (oh, wait, California does NOT have a Governor’s Mansion).

For the latest in political info, keep it right her, at Capitol Rap.

2009-06-01T08:17:00.000-07:00

Senate Bill 810, Senator Leno’s Single Payer Legislation, is dead for this year. In a flight of fiscal sanity, the Senate Appropriations Committee decided that the estimated $ 200 billion in annual estimated costs (probably low side, at that) was probably not appropriate inasmuch as the state is broke.

But let’s not be too quick to rush forward with accolades and praises for the Legislature. Last week also saw the birth of an idea by Senator Leland Yee that would have the Legislature take over the University of California system. As one observer told CR, “having the Legislature take over the UC system is a lot like having GM management take over Microsoft.”

Seriously, the UC system isn’t perfect, but their budget is balanced while the state’s budget is $ 25 billion upside down. As another observer observed (observers do that, you know) “this is a whacky proposal for a constitutional amendment to exchange UC’s 141 year track record of independent governance for an exciting new future hunkered down in the Capitol muck of petty politics.”

We’ll keep watch to see if this newest Legislative brainchild grows to adulthood.

2009-05-26T08:27:00.000-07:00

There was an earthquake last week, and it wasn’t the one in Los Angeles. The political tremors of the May 19 Special Election were higher on the Political Richter Scale than any event since the Proposition 13 revolt of 1978. Although proponents of the various budget ballot propositions far outspent their opponents, Propositions 1A through 1E all went down to cataclysmic defeat, with none of the ballot measures evening cracking 40% of the vote. Although turnout was low – not even 23% of us even bothered to vote – politicians who underestimate voter anger do so at their very grave peril.

According to a new Survey USA poll, Governor Schwarzenegger’s popularity is at 28% -- and he’s twice as popular as his Legislative cohorts!

This week, the Legislature will begin the task of attempting to balance the state budget. It’s going to be a daunting task – as it stands now, the budget is $ 107 billion. But, the state only took in $ 83 billion in revenue, meaning that the Sacramento powers must find a way to close a $ 24 billion gap. Sacramento insiders have told CR they have serious doubts that the current Sacramento power establishment is up to the task. And, with no federal bailout money on the horizon, the next weeks promise to be interesting ones.

Oh, there is an ancient Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.” Perhaps that curse has been visited upon the State of California.

2009-05-15T10:08:00.000-07:00

Lots of politics this past week – excellently timed for CAHU’s Day At The Capitol.

In the Legislature, Assembly Republicans elected a new leader. Assembly GOP Leader Mike Villines stepped down and was replaced by San Luis Obispo Assembly Member Sam Blakeslee. Assembly Member Blakeslee will make his FIRST public appearance as the designated Assembly Republican Leader at CAHU’s Day At the Capitol Diamond Reception on Monday, May 11. If you are not a Diamond member, join up and meet Assembly Member Blakeslee – a truly fine person – on Monday at 5:00 PM at the Sheraton Grand!

To no one’s surprise, the budget ballot measures, Propositions 1A through 1E, are all trailing in the polls. Unless there is a major turn-around over the next ten days, Californians can look forward to a budget train wreck on May 20. Two possible budget balancers that are being bandied about: The first involves taking property tax and sales tax revenues from local governments. The state did this once before in 1993. Local government people cringe at the possibility of a take-away this year, since local governments are themselves in trouble. Best estimate from a number of local government advocates is that such a take-away will result in many cities and counties declaring bankruptcy. The second “strategy” calls for the Governor to use his power of commutation to grant wholesale sentence commutations to felons currently incarcerated in state prison. This is an unprecedented expansion of the power of commutation, which has historically been granted only on a case by case basis.

Oh, and one more proposal: This last week the Governor suggested that there be a “debate” on the possibility legalization and taxation of marijuana. The best response to THAT proposal came from Insurance Commish Steve Poizner who said “we can’t smoke our way to a balanced budget.”

Rumors are starting to grow that LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will not run for Governor. Several political insiders have told CR that the Mayor’s poll numbers among female Hispanic voters are “terrible and getting worse.” Evidently the female Hispanic community is in almost universal disapproval of the Mayor’s jettisoning his wife last year to take up with a young female reporter (that relationship has also hit the skids). We at CR are not surprised by those numbers, since CR is itself married to a Latina female who has been personally very outspoken about the Mayor’s wayward ways. If Villaraigosa does not run, CR has been hearing rumors that Steve Westly – CAHU’s first choice for Governor in 2006 – might take another look at the 2010 race. We will keep you all posted.

Report from Democratic State Convention

2009-04-27T08:21:00.000-07:00

CR went to the Democratic State Convention this weekend – we habitually go to the conventions of both parties – and saw the opening salvo in the race for Governor. LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was a no-show, and Jack O’Connell’s appearance was focused exclusively on education issues, so he was a functional no-show. The two who were very much present were San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Jerry Brown.

Although neither candidate set the conventioneers on fire, Newsom was the better organized of the two. Everywhere you looked there were volunteers flashing “NEWSOM” signs. His introduction to speak to the full convention was accompanied by loud and boisterous cheering from the Newsom volunteer contingent. His speech was unimpressive, but you wouldn’t have known it from the Newsom supporters who flooded the convention floor, who cheered every word as if the speaker was Gavin Aristotle rather than Gavin Newsom.

By contrast, Brown’s speech was pretty good. Speaking entirely without notes, Brown have a cogent speech to the assembly. But the one-liner belonged to Newsom, who suggested that Jerry’s candidacy amounted to a “stroll down memory lane” – nice.

The after-parties thrown by both candidates also reflected the differences in their constituencies. Brown’s event was a tour of the old Governor’s Mansion (last occupied by his father, Pat Brown from 1958 to 1966), it was attended by about 500 people, most of whom probably remembered the first Jerry Brown Administration. Newsom put on a hip street party that drew about 2,000 of the hip people who go to hip street parties.

Despite the hijinks, neither candidate captured the hearts and minds of the delegates, but the smoother running Newsom organization could be a precursor of things to come in the 2010 Democratic Primary.

Oh, and one more thing, CR bumped into 2006 gubernatorial candidate (and strong CAHU friend) Steve Westly and asked if he were going to run again this year. There was no commitment one way or the other from Mr. Westly, but he did tell us that he would be making a final decision within the next two weeks.

For the latest in political news, keep it right here, at Capitol Rap.

An Interview with Mervyn Field from Cal Buzz.com

2009-04-20T09:39:00.000-07:00

An interview with pollster Mervyn Field. One of the best political websites surveying the California scene is www.calbuzz.com In their recent post, they include an interview with pollster Mervyn Field that makes fascinating reading:

Saturday, April 18, 2009
Five Questions with Merv Field
Mervin Field is the pioneering founder of the Field Poll, an independent, nonpartisan, public opinion survey that has tracked every state election in California since 1948. The man insiders call "The Swami" kindly took time to answer some Calbuzz questions.

Calbuzz: What do you make of Jerry Brown's effort to become the first guy to be elected governor again, when he's twice as old as the first time he won?

Merv Field: Jerry Brown is reasonably well positioned to be elected governor in 2010. If Dianne Feinstein does not run, then Brown and Antonio Villaraigosa move up in position. I think then that the chances for either winning the nomination is 50-50. Newsom's odds improve but are still relatively long.

Brown wears his age well. As a campaigner he doesn’t look much different than when he first ran for office in 1968. He certainly will not appear to be an old codger trying to win back his old job. The negatives he acquired as governor (1975-1982) will be issues in the campaign among old-timers and perhaps some of the newer voters. However, I can see him campaigning this way:

“I was first elected governor when I was 36. I accomplished a lot of things (also admitting to some failures). I have learned a lot since then -- being a mayor, AG, etc. I have witnessed all the changes, been active in dealing with them and am now uniquely equipped to deal with the huge problems facing the state.”

CB: What's with the Curse of Sunny Jim Rolph? Why do mayors have such a hard time getting elected governor, and what does it portend for Gavin Newsom and Villaraigosa?

MF: There were different conditions in each of the unsuccessful gubernatorial candidacies in California of former mayors of big cities, along with some similarities. Their tenures as mayors split their constituencies. Dealing with local problems gets more attention locally, where failures are well reported, then resurrected when running for governor. Local problems have inordinate effects on voters. Mayors, not governors, deal with potholes.

Also, as far as S.F. and L.A. are concerned, voters in either place don't identify with the other. There has been and still exists a somewhat ill-defined rivalry — if not animosity -- between residents of the two cities. Plus, there’s animosity between residents of the big cities and adjacent cities and suburbs. Both Villaraigosa and Newsom will face this problem.

CB: With their huge personal wealth, do Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner have an overwhelming advantage in the governor’s race?

MF: Money will help in getting attention, but it is problematic whether the reaction of the voters will be positive. Wealthy candidates without accomplishments in government feed the desire of voters to know more about them. They also invite a lot of scrutiny from the press digging into their lives. The negative media play about wealthy, new-to-the-public candidates, from former business associates, ex-spouses, school friends, etc. has a great and lasting effect on voter opinions during a relatively short campaign.

Whitman presumably has to run on the basis of being a successful business person (or personality) ready to straighten out the mess in Sacramento. But I don’t think that message will have as much resonance as it did in 2003 when Arnold used it successfully. And like Al Checchi and Bill Simon earlier -- it may also have some repellent aspects in 2010.

I don’t know about Poizner. He just got elected Insurance Commissioner in 2006, so he has not yet made a mark in public office. By next year, he probably still will be viewed essentially as a successful high-tech entrepreneur. If the GOP continues to be fractured, that’s not going to help. If the primary consists of expensive personal attack ads then the winner’s chances in November are diminished.

Any credibility that successful business people might have had as competent leaders has been collapsed with the news about Detroit automakers, AIG, Lehman Brothers, Wall Street, banks, etc.

CB: Tom Campbell is arguably the most qualified Republican who's not bloody likely to win his party's nomination for governor. Do you see anything on the political horizon that will enable moderate Republicans to become competitive again?

MF: I don’t see a moderate like Campbell getting the GOP nomination. It’s going to take a long time before moderate Republicans can be competitive again in California. The proportion of Republican voters has been steadily declining statewide for some time, and the public has become less inclined to react positively to messages of the national and state GOP parties. Republicans can still elect office holders in gerrymandered districts but not regularly beyond that.

The chances of moderate Republicans becoming more potent may occur if the promised reapportionment reform comes into being. The proving ground for moderate GOP candidates aiming for higher office will become more fruitful if they can start and get elected in legislative districts that are more evenly balanced.

CB: Imagine the unthinkable: that Calbuzz got it wrong and Dianne Feinstein does run for governor. Do you think she would be as formidable as the polls make her out, or would the liberal netroots questions about her husband's finances and her long absence from state politics combine to make her campaign strongest on the day she declared?

MF: If Feinstein runs she would face the problems you list. I agree with your inference that she would be at the peak of her popularity when she announces her candidacy. But if she announces before the other Democrats get too far in their campaigns I think she would still win the nomination. If she doesn’t have to face an inordinately scathing primary, she would be quite formidable against either Whitman or Poizner, with the odds in her favor.

If Feinstein really has her heart in running and being elected governor, her life-long desire, she would have to be considered the favorite in winning the Democratic nomination. However, I am beginning to be one of those political bystanders who believes that she won’t run. She’ll be 77 in 2010. Based on my perception of how voters perceive the strengths and weaknesses of a candidate, that age would be a handicap for a man running for high office and a larger handicap for a woman.

Posted by Roberts and Trounstine at 12:01 AM 5 comments

2009-04-06T08:34:00.000-07:00

The Legislature is down for Easter break this week, so there will be no CR this next week. This week, we have some polling data to share with you on the ballot propositions. As readers of CR know, there will be a special election on May 19 where voters will be asked to vote on several ballot measures designed to finalize the recently enacted state budget package. The key measure among the six ballot propositions is Proposition 1A, which will enact a state spending cap (the Liberals hate this) and also extend the recently enacted tax increases for an additional two years (the conservatives abhor this).

There are three polls out there right now: The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), Survey USA, and a private poll of one of the campaigns. Here’s what they are showing on Proposition 1A:

PPIC: YES 39%; NO 46%; UNDECIDED 15%

SURVEY USA: YES 27%; NO 29%; UNDECIDED 44%

PRIVATE CAMPAIGN POLL: YES 50%; NO 37%; UNDECIDED 13%

Well, which is it? Most observers are betting that the Survey USA poll is closest to the operating reality, since it reflects the general level of public disinterest.

2009-03-31T07:52:00.000-07:00

If there was any doubt about Senator Dianne Feinstein running for Governor, it should have been dispelled last week. On Friday, Senator Feinstein announced that she would not be supporting Organized Labor’s biggest, biggest bill, the Employee Free Choice Act. Not only is this a reversal from her position of last year, when she was a co-author of the same bill, but it means that Organized Labor would be gunning for her in a crowded Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Field. Best bet – Feinstein sits out and runs for re-election in 2012.

The recent tepid showing of Jerry Brown in the Field Poll (he only edges the equally tepid LA Mayor Antonio Vilaraigosa by a 26-22 margin) has caused political tongues to start wagging about other possible Democrat entrants to the Gubernatorial Sweepstakes. State Treasurer Bill Lockyer – dubbed by one political observer as “the only adult around” has elicited some buzz. And Steve Westly, a strong friend of CAHU, is rumored to be taking a second look at making a second run for the Governor’s job.

On the Republican side, Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman are locked in competition as to who can be more vocal in their opposition to Proposition 1A, the Governor and the Legislature’s budget ballot fix. Up to know it’s only talk-talk; CR is waiting to see if either of them reaches into their mega-billfold (or mega handbag) to underwrite an opposition effort.

2010 Gubernatorial Race-Political Observers Comment

2009-03-23T15:57:00.000-07:00

By John Lovell

The putative front runner for Governor is generally thought to be Attorney General Jerry Brown. If you factor Senator Feinstein out of the race (and it appears to be increasingly probable that Senator Feinstein plans on remaining in the United States Senate), Attorney General Brown brings the strongest name identification into the race. And the conventional wisdom – at least today – is that whomever wins the Democratic gubernatorial nomination will prevail in November, 2010 in what is thought to be an increasingly Blue state.

Well, a couple of veteran political observers, have a different view, and here’s what Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine had to share with Capitol Rap:

“We've been through this movie before: candidate with superior experience runs for high office arguing that he or she has what it takes to manage the government from day one.

This was Hillary Clinton's strategic mistake. While Barack Obama was campaigning as the candidate of change, Clinton kept saying she had the experience. But Clinton's message made the very case that Obama wanted voters to take away: She represented the past, the status quo, while he represented the future.

This is Jerry Brown's challenge, too. He was always ahead of the curve. They called him "Gov. Moonbeam" because he proposed that California should have its own communications satellite -- not so far out in hindsight, was it?

But he was ahead of the curve when huge numbers of today's voters weren't yet born. The more he emphasizes his experience, the more he looks and sounds like a flash from the past.Or as Garry South, Gavin Newsom's consultant, puts it indelicately: "The more he babbles on about how cutting edge he was in the '70s, the more he makes himself a relic.

"We're not sure anyone can make Brown look old school. He's the most adaptive, chameleon-like changeling California has ever witnessed. Paddle on the left, paddle on the right. Oppose Prop. 13, support it with all your heart. Oppose Prop. 8, vow to enforce it, argue against it in the Supreme Court.

But he's in a political double bind and arguing about all the wonderful things he did three decades ago won't make him the next big thing.”

Special Statewide Election on May 19th

2009-03-16T08:16:00.000-07:00

By John Lovell

If there is going to be a single distinguishing feature of the Schwarzenegger era, it’s the plethora of elections. Since taking office in October 2003, there has been a statewide election every year in California except for 2007. CAHU members will recall that 2007 was the year the Governor was trying to cobble together a mixed breed dog of a coalition to try and pass his version of health care reform. In every other year, however, Californians have been herded to the polls.

We’re seeing it again this May 19th, when the fourth special statewide election of the Schwarzenegger epoch is on the horizon.

Why this election? Well, it all goes back to the Budget Death March that we all endured up here in the River City.

In order to get the budget mix of cuts, “revenue enhancements” (that’s a tax hike in plain English), and some borrowing through with just enough Republican votes to get the required two-thirds vote, Schwarzenegger and Democratic and Republican legislative leaders had to agree to changes that require voter approval.

To placate conservatives they created a state spending cap and a rainy day fund, which will fill with revenue during California's revenue boom times and make up much of the difference during California's revenue bust times. If this had been in place a decade ago, the Budget Death March would not have been necessary this year. No surprises here, folks” conservatives like spending caps, liberals hate the ground spending caps walk on. So, to assure that there are liberal happy campers, the spending cap ballot measure ties the length of the tax hikes to passage of the spending limits. If the spending limits don't pass, the tax hikes are over in two years and still more deep cuts are in store. If they do, the tax hikes get another two years, and the business cycle is probably up again, bringing in revenues. This measure is embodied in Proposition 1A, easily the most substantive of the six ballot measures.

Here are the other measures:

Proposition 1B would change the state's Proposition 98 education funding requirements for supplemental education payments to local districts due to recent budget cuts.

Proposition 1C would allow the state to borrow from future Lottery proceeds. No more will Lottery winnings go to schools (remember the slogan “our schools win too”?), that’s why

Proposition 1B is needed.

Proposition 1D would remove some of the money from the old Proposition 10 (that was the Rob Reiner tobacco tax initiative for pre-schools) to use to balance the budget.

Proposition 1E would remove some funding from the old Proposition 63 income tax hike for millionaires from mental health programs to budget balancing.

Proposition 1F would stop state elected officials from receiving pay raises when the state budget is in deficit. This one is a fig leaf.

Current polls show these measures all slightly ahead, but not by enough that they are safe from defeat on May 19. We will keep you posted as developments unfold.

Real Time vs. Political Time

2009-03-09T08:22:00.000-07:00

By John Lovell

There’s real time for normal people, and then there’s political time. In real time for normal people, November of 2010 is a long, long way away and a lot can happen between now and then. In political time, however, anyone who is not now running for Governor of California (an election that will be held November of 2010) is almost too late to get into the race. Here now, are the candidates for Governor of California. Be assured that one of these people will be the next Governor:

Jerry Brown: The current Attorney General, Brown was Governor once before – elected in 1974 and re-elected in 1978. Since term limits were not enacted until 1990, Jerry gets the opportunity for a “do-over.” When he first ran for Attorney General, Mr. Brown asserted that he was not interested in running for Governor, but he has since changed his mind and is evidently intending to run. In early Democratic Primary polling, he currently leads the field, but not by a lot. Current polls give him a 26-22 edge over Antonio Villaraigosa, with SF Mayor Gavin Newsom at 14%.

John Garamendi: The Lieutenant Governor, Garamendi previously served as Insurance Commissioner, and, before that, as a State Senator from the Stockton area. This will be his third run for the state’s top spot. Garamendi previously ran for Governor in 1982 (losing in the Democratic Primary to Tom Bradley) and 1994 (where he was bested in the Democratic Primary by Kathleen Brown).

Gavin Newsom: The controversial Mayor of San Francisco will be making his first run at statewide office. Nevertheless, Mayor Newsom has achieved a higher degree of statewide name recognition that one usually does not associate with a San Francisco Mayor.

Jack O’Connell: Jack is the State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Although that office is a non-partisan one, O’Connell is a Democrat. O’Connell was formerly an Assembly Member and later a State Senator from the Santa Barbara area. In one of his successful re-election campaigns for the Assembly, Jack captured both the Democratic AND the Republican nominations ! He is an extremely likeable and hard working campaigner. Although he is not polling well at this time, O’Connell is someone who should not be counted out.

Antonio Villaraigosa: Like his San Francisco counterpart, Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa has had his share of controversy (both Mayors evidently think Monogamy is a Board Game invented by Parker Brothers). He seems to have put all of those rough patches behind him in an easy re-election campaign. If he is going to run for Governor, he is going to have to shift from city election campaign mode to a statewide election campaign very, very quickly.

Brown, Garamendi, Newsom, O’Connell and Villaraigosa are all Democrats.

There are three Republican hopefuls who are already in the water:

Tom Campbell: Tom is currently ensconced in academia, but he is a former State Senator, former Congressman and former Finance Director under Governor Schwarzenegger. He has run for statewide office twice, losing in the Republican Senatorial Primary in 1992 to Bruce Hershenson, then losing in the US Senate race in 2000 to Senator Dianne Feinstein. He is the only Republican candidate who is not independently wealthy.

Steve Poizner: Poizner is the Insurance Commissioner, having been elected in 2006 in a race with Democrat Cruz Bustamente. He’s a former Silicon Valley entrepreneur and will be able to self-finance his campaign should he be obliged to. He opposed Proposition 5 and helped finance early polling for the No on Proposition 5 campaign. At this point in the race, he seems to have garnered more support of GOP elected officials than his two opponents.

Meg Whitman: Whitman is a former eBay executive who was extremely active in Senator McCain’s Presidential effort. She has become very active and very visible in a short time. During the last election, Whitman made a $ 250,000 donation to the No on Proposition 5 campaign that gave a timely boost to law enforcement’s efforts to defeat that proposition. Current GOP polling has Whitman slightly ahead of Campbell, with Poizner trailing.

CAHU PAC Diamond Contributors will have an opportunity to meet Meg Whitman on May 11 at the Diamond Reception at Day At The Capitol!!

We Have a State Budget!

2009-02-23T08:09:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

The Great Budget Death March of 2009 is over! The budget was adopted in the pre-dawn hours of February 19. The final laps to the ultimate budget resolution occupied 45.5 successive hours -- possibly a record of some sort. The budget logjam was broken when Senator Abel Maldonado agreed to vote for the budget, but only if a ballot measure would be placed before voters asking them to adopt non-partisan primaries for all state offices except Governor. That measure is slated to be on the June 2010 ballot. Governor Schwarzenegger has already embraced the measure as a needed reform, while the party leadership in both parties are mobilizing to fight it.

In addition to budget hijinks, capitol participants and spectators alike were also treated to a fractious GOP Senate Caucus that saw Senator Dave Cogdill shown the door as Republican Leader. His replacement is Dennis Hollingsworth, who was elected after a contentious process that saw two GOP Senators nearly get into a fistfight, and four of the fifteen Republican Senators refusing to vote at all for a successor to Senator Cogdill. Some capitol observers expressed regret that the fistfight did not take place – speculating that the state’s budget woes might be cured if said fistfight was put on Pay Per View.

The budget is over, but there are no political winners. This is a budget that displeases virtually every capitol stakeholder, Democrats have had to preside over cuts to programs of crucial importance to their key constituents, Republicans who ultimately voted for the budget will endure the opprobrium of rank and file Republicans for acceding to tax increases, and the Senate Republicans are in a fractious state. The next few months will tell whether anyone in this budget process will achieve some sort of political resurrection.

Budget Update-Long Hours with No Result

2009-02-17T10:12:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

CR is more than a little tired right now. This past weekend has been entirely eaten up by a vain attempt by the State Legislature to enact a state budget. The Assembly went into session Saturday morning at 9:00 AM, then promptly recessed until 5:00 PM when the Senate convened. Reportedly there are enough votes in the Assembly to pass the budget (all 51 Democrats and 3 as yet unnamed GOP Assembly Members), but the Senate can only produce 26 of the needed 27 votes.

Both houses went far into the night last night – they were in session even after the bars closed! Around 2:30 AM last night, it became evident that the votes could not be mustered in the Senate (only one Republican of the three needed to bring the Senate numbers to 27 stepped up). The rest of Saturday night, all of Sunday morning, afternoon and up until about ten minutes ago (it is now 8:52 PM on Sunday evening) have been spent trying to find that elusive third Republican vote. Even though only one Republican has publicly stepped up, there is a second Republican in the Senate who has already committed to vote for the budget, but he is not going to do so until the third Republican materializes. The Assembly, for its part, apparently has no intention of putting the final budget vote up –that’s the tax increase provisions—until the Senate has finalized its vote.

CR has been up more than 24 hours – having followed the budget except for a brief respite at home last night to watch a championship boxing match on HBO.

We will give you another update tomorrow to let you know how all of this is transpiring.

Latest State Budget Version To Be Unveiled This Week

2009-02-09T08:08:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

For many Americans, President’s Day, typically the third Monday in February, is a holiday. President’s Day is a merger of Lincoln’s Birthday (February 12), and Washington’s Birthday (February 21). For those of us who were baby boomers, our childhoods were marked with both days being holidays, but holidays on the actual day of celebration, not on the most convenient Mondays.

Today, only the California Legislature celebrates both Lincoln’s Birthday and Washington’s Birthday – but not on the actual days, on the most convenient Mondays.

All this by way of saying that the Legislature will not be in session on February 9 because they will be “celebrating” Lincoln’s Birthday. This means no one will be around and things will be quiet at the state capitol building.

Which makes this an excellent day for a politician to make a major announcement. It will be a slow news day and people who might be making critical comments about your announcement usually are not around. It should therefore come as no surprise that the latest Legislative iteration of the state budget will be unveiled on Monday, February 9 by Senate President Pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg. Reportedly, the budget will be a mix of revenue increases and spending cuts. Although details have not been revealed, CR has learned that outreach is being made to key capitol interest groups exhorting them to persuade Republicans, and at least one Democrat, to vote for the entire budget package – including the tax increases. Both Democratic and Republican Legislators have told CR that there is optimism that this time a budget will be approved.

A vote is slated to be taken on Tuesday; we’ll see if politicians make good pundits.

California Budget Crisis Update

2009-02-02T08:32:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was in intense private negotiations over the weekend, focusing on California’s budget crisis. Beginning Monday, the state will suspend income tax refund payments, as well as vendors of the state, Cal Grants, child care services and programs for the developmentally disabled.

As suggested last week in CR, there seems to be a change in the thinking of legislative Republicans. CR has learned that GOP leaders are indicating a willingness to accept tax hikes so long as they are linked to program cuts and – very important – a spending cap. Naturally, this movement has won the enmity of ultra- conservative Republicans.

Not to be outdone, some liberal stakeholders are also grumbling about various possible elements of a compromise. As one political insider told CR, “this may mean that a deal is close to getting done.” Confirming this, the Governor’s people told CR that a budget deal is expected within the next ten days.

2010 Gubernatorial Election Update

2009-01-26T09:32:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

With the 2010 gubernatorial election being just around the corner (by next year at this time, the campaigns will be in full flower), some early surprises are showing up on the horizon.

The conventional wisdom has been that the winner of the Democratic gubernatorial primary will be ratified by all voters in the general election and will be sworn into office in late December of 2010. Well, there is a new Rasmussen Poll out that suggests that the conventional wisdom may be more conventional than it is wise.

Meg Whitman, the former eBay executive, beats most of the leading Democratic candidates, and is in a statistical tie with the putative gubernatorial frontrunner.

In a mythical race against LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, it’s Whitman 41% and Villaraigosa 34%. When she is matched against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, she leads by a narrower margin: 37% to 34%. But here’s the kicker – even against Democratic frontrunner Jerry Brown, Whitman is in a statistical tie. The Brown-Whitman matchup has Brown at 40% and Whitman at 38%.

Now this is an early poll, and the other GOP candidate, Steve Poizner, was not included in this poll; nor was Whitman matched up against Dianne Feinstein (although it appears more and more likely that Senator Feinstein intends to stay in Washington), nevertheless, Democrats should take notice. California may be Blue, but Whitman may be able to add a little bit of Red to those colors.

The Inauguration Takes the Stage This Week

2009-01-20T08:03:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

Don’t look for a lot of legislative activity this week. Governor Schwarzenegger and many members of the Legislature are in Washington, DC for the Inauguration of the new President. Best guess is that no one really returns until Thursday when budget negotiations will recommence.

CR did have a discussion with a Democratic Capitol operative who believes that a budget settlement will be coming sometime in the next 10 days. Here’s this Democratic operative’s take:

“So far, Republicans have paid no political price for refusing to support tax increases, and therefore holding up the budget. Most of the polls I have seen show that the public has not become engaged in the budget battle.”

“All that is going to change, and is going to change quickly, though. Here’s why: The state is out of cash and can’t send state income tax refunds back to Californians. By the time February comes around, an awful lot of Californians are going to be wondering ‘where is my refund check’. We Democrats are going to lay that one directly at the doorstep of Republican Legislators. We’re gonna let Californians know that the reason they can’t get their tax refund checks is because the GOP won’t adopt a budget.”

CR thinks this is an interesting take, and will watch to see if this political development comes to pass. To get the latest in political information; keep it right here, at Capitol Rap.

The State Budget Crisis Continues....

2009-01-12T08:07:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

More budget hijinks last week. First, the Governor vetoed the Democratic budget plan that was passed by a majority vote, rather than the required two-thirds margin. Interestingly, the Governor wasn’t too concerned about that legal cloud (which appears to be a cumulous cloud); instead, he vetoed the Democratic budget plan because the majority party was not willing to give him certain environmental concessions that would have facilitated the launching of key capital projects in the state. The Governor’s own budget proposal has come under a firestorm of criticism from the law enforcement community, since it contemplates direct release – without any parole oversight – of over 65,000 felons from state prison. Finally, at the end of the week the Legislative Analyst suggested that maybe the Governor and the Legislature ought to punt the entire budget mess to the voters in a special election.

On the political front, the Republican race for Governor just became a little more crowded as former eBay executive Meg Whitman has all but announced as a Republican candidate. She joins Insurance Commish Steve Poizner and former Arnold Finance Director Tom Campbell in the gubernatorial pool. Although Poizner has locked up the lion’s share of GOP endorsements, polls show that the public is open to any of the candidates. Both Poizner and Whitman can effectively self-fund their campaigns, while Campbell will be obliged to raise money to underwrite a run.

On the Democratic side, most political observers are telling CR that Senator Dianne Feinstein will stay in Washington and will not run for Governor. If this proves to be true, then look for a race involving Attorney General Jerry Brown (he was Governor before the current term limits law was enacted, so he can do this all over again), Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, SF Mayor Gavin Newsom, State Superintendent Jack O’Connell, at least. Still uncertain candidates are LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former City Controller (and CAHU friend) Steve Westly.

What Lies Ahead and A Look Back

2009-01-06T13:15:00.000-08:00

By John Lovell

The Legislature will be coming back this week and will be in session on a full time basis until they take a one week hiatus for Easter Week. They are then slated to work through July when they take that month off IF they have a budget adopted (there are those who say the Catholic Church will have married priests before the budget is approved this year); they then come back in August and work until the middle of September.

This year the Assembly has 51 Democrats and only 29 Republicans. And it appears that precious few of the 51 Democrats can be classified as moderates. The Senate currently consists of 24 Democrats, 15 Republicans and 1 vacancy. The vacancy was held by Democrat Mark Ridley-Thomas, but he has resigned to take a seat on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, to which he was elected last November. Anyone who thinks the Republicans have a chance of capturing that seat in a special election should see me immediately about buying beach front property in Idaho.

Last year, we caught a break in resisting the Governor’s ill-advised health care “reform” proposal. Although the bill passed the Assembly (it didn’t hurt that then Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez was the author) it was ambushed in Senate Health Committee by, of all people, Sheila Kuehl! Why? Because Senator Kuehl was so committed to single payer that she was not going to entertain any other proposal that did not conform to her single payer objectives. This year, of course, Senator Kuehl has been termed out (ever thought we would regret that??), and, at least in theory, the votes could be there for a reprise of the Governor’s proposal. At this point, however, it appears that the budget crisis facing the state – California is looking at running out of money some time in February – will work against enactment of anything that will cost money. Nevertheless, we need to be on guard against legislation that will be seen as fiscally “neutral”. Further, we need to take advantage of this time frame to present our own solutions. Finally, CAHU members need to make it their business to get to know their own Legislators. We’ll talk more about that in future Capitol Raps.

Is it 1924 all over again?

2008-03-04T21:36:00.000-08:00

An unpopular and scandal-ridden Republican President had just been buried, in the wake of his death, some of the worst scandals of the 20th century were to come to light. Two of President Harding's cabinet members would go to federal prison, one of his staffers would also go to prison. His successor, Vice-President Calvin Coolidge, had the charisma of a parking meter.

On the Democratic side, William Gibbs McAdoo, son-in-law of the beloved Woodrow Wilson, wound up in a head to head match up with Alfred E. Smith, the first Roman Catholic ever to be a serious candidate for President. Surely, either the glamorous McAdoo, or the up from the sidewalks of New York Smith would easily dismantle the hapless Coolidge.

It didn't happen. The Democrats destroyed themselves at a divisive national convention that went for an unprecendented 103 ballots -- the longest in our country's history. At the end of many, many days, John W. Davis, a corporate lawyer (and many years later the lawyer for the segregationist south in the landmark Brown v. Board of Education case) was given a nomination that he himself said, had "little worth". Coolidge won easily in November.

Is 2008 going to be 1924 all over again? Are the Democrats beating each other up so much that they are creating the opportunity for John McCain to win the White House. Will history repeat itself? We'll see.

Karen Bass is new Speaker

2008-02-27T20:52:00.000-08:00

Well, the Speaker election was supposed to be March 11, but Karen Bass and Fabian Nunez informed various and sundry folks, including CR, that she had amassed letters from 33 of the 48 Democrats supporting her Speakership candidacy. This represents a victory for Nunez, who believes that after Bass terms out in 2010, the way will be clear for his protege Kevin de Leon to succeed Bass. Bass is currently Assembly Majority Leader whose legislative passion has been foster care issues. She is very even tempered and well liked by her colleagues -- a fact made manifest by the fact that she collected 33 letters of support. Capitol insiders are hopeful that her well respected chief of staff, Nolice Edwards, will be making the move as Speaker's chief of staff, as well.

Leadership Changes Abound

2008-02-11T20:40:00.000-08:00

In the wake of Proposition 93's defeat, both houses set about the task of picking new leaders. With the exception of Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines (soon to be honored at CAHU's Diamond Reception during DATC), all of the other leaders are now termed out with the failure of Proposition 93.

The Senate moved first with its leadership change as Darrell Steinberg was declared the Senate President Pro Tem in waiting. He will not formally take office until December, when the new Legislative session begins, but his choice would seem to be the smoothest transition.

The Assembly Democrats held a long caucus last week, where the upshot was that no new Speaker was selected. Instead, it was announced that there will be an election for Assembly Speaker on March 11. This, of course, is sort of a starter's pistol guaranteeing that the Assembly will be doing nothing serious until the new Speaker is selected. Like the Senate, the plan is for the Speaker's actual accession to office to be delayed until December.

Senate Republicans have yet to move on picking a leader to replace termed out Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman.

Although both houses have selected a December accession date for their house leader, that very deferral may present the seeds of conflict. As one observer told CR, "well, they can say Steinberg will take over in December, and they can say whoever wins on March 11 will take over as Speaker in December, but doesn't that deferral mean that it gives plenty of time for others to put together their own campaigns?"

Election aftermath

2008-02-06T13:57:00.000-08:00

John Zogby may be a good pollster in other parts of the nation, but he should be required to have adult supervision before he conducts another California poll. Zogby had both Governor Romney and Senator Obama winning their respective primaries. He had both of them very wrong. Senator McCain carried all but two Congressional districts enroute to a comfortable. Senator Clinton's margin was relatively closer, but she carried forty-three of fifty-three Congressional districts. One pollster told CR that Zogby's methodology -- relying on random digit dialing, rather than using the voter file -- is fundamentally flawed. "Zogby's method includes some people who simply aren't registered to vote", this pollster told CR.

With the failure of Proposition 93, look for the jockeying to begin in the Legislature for the Speaker and Senate President Pro Tem positions. Although both Speaker Nunez and Senate President Pro Tem Perata have said they intend to stick around for awhile, don't bet the farm on that one.

FORGET THE POLLSTERS, HERE'S WHAT THE BETTORS ARE SAYING

2008-02-05T01:38:00.000-08:00

As CR readers know, it's legal to bet on elections in England. With the benefit of online betting, a lot of Americans weigh in with the Brit betting houses, as well. Here are the latest odds to win the presidency:

Hillary Clinton
13/8

John McCain
7/4

Barack Obama
2/1

Mitt Romney
16/1

Michael Bloomberg
16/1

Mike Huckabee
66/1

Ron Paul
150/1

Zogby's Final Word on Tsunami Tuesday

2008-02-05T01:23:00.001-08:00

Here are John Zogby's final overnight tracks for Tsunami Tuesday:

New Jersey: McCain over Romney 53-24; Clinton over Obama 46-41

New York: McCain over Romney 56-20

Georgia: Obama over Clinton 49-29

Missouri: McCain over Huckabee 34-27, Romney has 25; Obama over Clinton 45-42

California: Romney over McCain 40-33; Obama over Clinton 49-36

Please note that one very respected California poll has McCain over Romney by 2 points and Clinton over Obama by 9.

Tsunami Tuesday

2008-02-04T10:48:00.000-08:00

It's the day before the big primary day across the country, and Mr. Zogby has weighed in with some interesting numbers. In a nutshell, his numbers are good news for Senator McCain and ominous for Senator Clinton. Here's what Zogby's got:

In NewJersey, a state with some many organized crime figures buried there that it is known as the Arlington National Cemetary of the mob, McCain leads Romney by a 52-26 margin, with Mike Huckabee way back with 7%. One the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama are in a flat-footed tie at 43% each.

New York's Republicans are voting for McCain, 53% to just 19% for Governor Romney.

Georgia's Democrats have given Obama a 48% to 31% lead over Clinton.

Missouri Republicans are giving 35% to McCain, 27% to Mike Huckabee, and 24% to Mitt Romney. The Democrats in New Jersey give Obama the edge over Clinton, 47-42.

California Republicans favor Romney. He is polling at 40%, McCain at 32% and Huckabee at a dozen percentage points. California Democrats, in a reversal from early polls, are going toward a Obama, who now has 48%, or Clinton, who is at 40%.

We'll recap all of this after the eleciton, and follow that up with the real polls --How are the bookies doing on with the presidential sweepstake.

The Final Florida Track

2008-01-29T08:31:00.001-08:00

Zogby's final track for today's Florida Republican primary shows John McCain up by four points over Mitt Romney; Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are tied for a distant third. Rumors are continuing to build that Giuliani is poised to withdraw from the race as early as tomorrow.

Zogby's final numbers give McCain 35%, Romney 31% and Giuliani and Huckabee 13% each. Zogby seems to think that McCain's upward trend is attributable to the two major endorsements he picked up this last week -- one from Governor Crist and the other from Senator Martinez.

Watch the returns tonight, and let's see if Zogby gets it right.

Last Track from Florida

2008-01-28T17:12:00.000-08:00

The last Zogby track before the Florida primary tomorrow puts John McCain up over Mitt Romney by 3 points with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee far behind.

The latest Zogby track gives McCain 33%; Romney 30%; Giuliani 14% and Huckabee at 11%.

McCain's lead is within the margin of error, so this can go either way.

Interesting rumor already floating about -- some Republican pooh-bahs have suggested that Rudy Giuliani may drop out after Florida in order to spare himself the humiliation of a loss in New York, where polls show him losing to John McCain.

AB 1X at the Crossroads

2008-01-27T17:41:00.000-08:00

Although the Senate Health Committee is slated to vote on AB 1X on January 28, CR readers should not be surprised if the vote is postponed. If it is, that means that the proponents are still trying to persuade Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata to sign off on the bill and move it forward.

If the vote is taken on January 28, current betting at the Capitol is that the measure will be held in the Senate Health Committee. Last week's Committee hearing was a first -- a legislative committee actually looked closely at AB 1X. This is in stark contrast to the lack of legislative curiousity when they enacted the ill-conceived and ill-conceived utility reform back in the 90's.

The Senate Health Committee hearing exposed several flaws in the bill -- virtually all attributable to the rosy assumptions on which the bill is based. And if any of a number of those rosy assumptions prove to be erroneous, the long-term budget consequenses to the state could be horrific. And that, dear readers, is why legislators have suddently become reluctant to vote for AB 1X.

It's axiomatic that in a term limited political environment, legislators have to be on the lookout for a new office for which to run. What a number of legislators are worried about is that a vote for this bill could -- in very tangible ways -- come back to haunt them. As one Sacramento observer suggested to CR, "how are you going to run for statewide office in a few years if you voted for AB 1X, and AB 1X winds up costing the state billions of dollars in general fund money?"

Legislators are worried about this. Although it happened in the middle nineties, those who were visible in the utility reform legislation saw their statewide political ambitions jettisoned by the disastrous fallout of that legislation.

AB 1X gets mugged

2008-01-24T22:14:00.000-08:00

AB 1X was heard by the Senate Health Committee yesterday, and it appears that the proponents could emerge on their shields, rather than with them. It was all over yesterday after respected Chief Legislative Analyst Liz Hill told the committee that the LAO fiscal analysis of AB 1X suggested that the reforms proposed by AB 1X could be billions of dollars in the red by 2014. Although Administration officials and Speaker Fabian Nunez disagreed, the damage was done. The LAO has very high fiscal cred with Legislators in both parties, and several Democrats on the Committee -- Democrats who had been expected to be "aye" votes for the bill -- were distinctly uncomfortable.

Since no Republican on the Committee has expressed support for the bill, it requires a solid Democratic vote if the bill is to get out of Committee. Since Committee Chair Sheila Kuehl has already said she's against the bill, as is fellow Democrat Leland Yee, AB 1X cannot lose any more Democratic votes. And Liz Hill harpooned hopes of the bill's proponents with her fiscal dissection of the bill.

As if that weren't bad enough for the proponents, a number of liberal unions -- themselves more committed to single payer -- joined together with traditional business organizations (who are NOT in favor of a single payer alternative) to torpedo the bill. As one observer told CR, "it reminds me of the fights to repeal local prohibition in southern communities, the Baptists and the Bootleggers join together to oppose repeal of local prohibition."

At the request of Senator Don Perata, the Senate President Pro Tempore, a vote on AB 1X was delayed until Monday. Although that reprieve gives the proponents time to marshal their forces, yesterday's hearing suggests they have a steep mountain to climb.

In Sacramento politics, however, overnight is an eternity and what we could see is a wholesale reshuffling of the Health Committee membership by Senate Democratic leadership to assure the bill's passage to the floor. Even then, however, sufficient damage was done to the bill where it looks less like a thoroughbred race horse and more like a mutant cow at Chernobyl.

Betting on the Presidency

2008-01-22T12:35:00.000-08:00

Americans are used to following the polls as an election season unfolds. They're fun to follow and gives all of us the sense of the emerging horse race among the candidates. As all of us learned at the New Hampshire primary, though, the polls can be wrong -- very wrong.

As those of you who haven't been in the Witness Protection Program all know, every single poll called New Hampshire for Senator Barrack Obama by double digits. In fact, even the Clinton campaigns own polling showed Senator Clinton being trounced by Senator Obama by that same margin. To Clinton's joy (and Obama's chagrin), all the polls were wrong.

Historically, of course, there have been other instances where the polls were wrong. In 1936 the Literary Digest called that election for Alfred M. Landon over FDR -- FDR wound carrying all buy two states; In 1948 the Chicago Tribune headlines declared "Dewey Defeats Truman" -- never happened; In 2004 exit polls showed John Kerry besting President Bush in key states, another miss.

What hasn't been wrong over time has been a different type of poll -- manifested in the wagering decisions made by bettors who put their own money on the presidential race. In England, it is legal to bet on US Presidential races, and the London Betting Parlors (or as they would spell it in England, "Parlours") do a brisk business. And they have gotten it right year in and year out.

Here now, are the Presidential betting odds from Ladbrokes -- one of the biggest betting houses in England:

Hillary Clinton
2.10

Barack Obama
3.75

John McCain
4.33

Mitt Romney
11.00

Rudolph Giuliani
11.00

Michael Bloomberg
17.00

Mike Huckabee
26.00

Fred Thompson
101.00

John Edwards
101.00

Ron Paul
101.00

Some interesting notes here. First, take Fred Thompson down off the board, he is withdrawing from the race today. Second, note that NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg ranks fairly well for someone who has yet to spend a nickel cut in half in this race. Finally, at this stage at least, the betting crowd has made John McCain the clear Republican front-runner.

As an added bonus to our readers, CR will be posting the London betting odds on an ongoing basis. We'll also keep you apprised of the various polls -- and see which hits closest to the ultimate result!

Budget dominates conversation

2008-01-17T14:39:00.000-08:00

The release of Governor Schwarzenegger's 2008-2009 budget has been dominating capitol conversation. The the state $ 14 billion in debt, this budget was expected to be a draconian one, and the Governor's office did not disappoint. Highlights of the budget featured proposed closure of 48 state parks and the early release of over 22,000 convicted felons from state prison. Oh, and just to be sure the public is safe from the 22,000 felons (none of whom will be mistaken for Nobel Laureates) the budget also CUTS law enforcement funding by 10%.

Thinking among Capitol insiders is that this budget makes enactment of AB 1X even more remote. One capitol regular told CR that "the public isn't going to stand for an exenditure of an additional $ 14 billion for an experimental health care bill when they are concerned about a bunch of felons running around their neighborhoods."

On the Presidential front, the latest South Carolina Zogby boll has John McCain leading Michael Huckabee by a 29-22 count. The poll, which was taken yesterday, has Fred Thompson at 14%, Mitt Romney at 12% and Ron Paul at 5%. Although the primary is this Saturday, CR readers should be cautioned against putting too much store in this poll. First of all, it's a day old; secondly, the South Carolina Republican primary is one of the roughest primary elections in the country; and finally, the candidates have another two days to make a mark or really screw things up.

The more reliable Presidential barometers are coming out of the London betting houses. And that will be the subject of another posting!

Capitol Rap - Week of January 7, 2008

2008-01-11T10:59:00.000-08:00

Capitol Rap
by John Lovell

Week of January 7, 2008

The California Legislature reconvenes on January 7 in an atmosphere of great uncertainty. Last year, the "Year of Health Care Reform", was supposed to lead into this year's "Year of Education". But there's going to be an overlap. The health care proposal, AB 1X passed the Assembly on a party line vote late in the special session. Although the proposal has the support of the Governor, Senate President Pro Tempore Don Perata is decidedly cool to the idea of bringing the measure to a vote in his house.

His reason? Senator Perata has been quoted as suggesting that the additional $ 14 Billion burden of health care reform is out of place when the state is already looking at a $ 14 Billion budget deficit even without any action on AB 1X.

The Governor believes that the state can undertake this additional burden. Or does he? He’s slated to declare a fiscal state of emergency and call the Legislature into a special session to deal with the budget. This special session will run concurrently with the regular session. One long-time capitol observer told CR, "this whole thing has an Alice in Wonderland feel to it, I mean we are $ 14 Billion (probably more) upside down, we've declared a state of fiscal emergency and we're still talking about spending another $ 14 Bill? Folks have been civilly committed for less bizarre behavior than that."

On the political front, CR has subscribed to the overnight Zogby poll tracking services. Zogby has been in and out with his past performances, although he called the Iowa race right on the money. His latest New Hampshire sampling has Senator Clinton at 31%, Senator Obama at 30% and Senator Edwards at 20%. This sample was given to CR on January 6 and reflects sampling that went on before and after the Iowa caucus. According to Zogby, although the 1/6/08 poll shows Senator Clinton in the lead, the sampling that took place after the Iowa caucus gave Senator Obama an 8% edge. If those trends continue, Zogby says, Senator Obama will win New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, Governor Romney sits at 32%, Senator McCain comes in at 31% and Governor Huckabee weighs in at 12%. Mayor Giuliani has 7%.

Keep looking at CR for daily polling updates from New Hampshire.